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Prediction markets for Options

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

If the GOP win a trifecta, will the Senate use the 'Nuclear Option' to break legislative filibuster before Sept '25?

Aug 12, 1:17 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

12.78%chance

365434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2612

383

Will the US Senate use the 'Nuclear Option' to break the legislative filibuster before September 2025?

Aug 12, 1:08 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

11.71%chance

294705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2746

364

Will Donald Trump express support for the 'nuclear option" of breaking legislative filibuster, before September 2025?

Aug 12, 1:30 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

24.45%chance

232649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

569

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Dec 10, 3:14 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

131376

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1092

887

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2045?

Nov 12, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.23%chance

16845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

917

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060?

Dec 22, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.81%chance

17836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

895

Will LA Metro choose a monorail option for the Sepulveda Transit Corridor?

Sep 6, 4:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.01%chance

8697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1564

639

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2050?

Nov 12, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

17653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

680

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

63.02%chance

5540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2308

1435

Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027?

Feb 8, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.25%chance

11211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

959

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2025?

Jun 30, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

956

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