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Prediction markets for OPUS

Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?

Mar 5, 9:16 PMApr 4, 8:15 PM

42%chance

10315138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]

Feb 2, 1:06 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

2210521

OptionProbability

Other

<4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Was sonnet 5 meant to be released instead of Opus 4.6?

Feb 6, 6:19 PMJun 30, 5:15 PM

2.59%chance

171021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

613

16

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

5765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

63.89%chance

7691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

128

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12%chance

4395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

976

Is the Twitter hype about Opus 4.5 overblown? (Based on March 28 poll)

Dec 28, 7:22 AMApr 1, 11:59 PM

14.01%chance

11376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will "Claude Opus 4.6 is Driven" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.56%chance

5237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

970

Will "Opus 4.6 Reasoning Doesn't Verbalize Alignmen..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 8:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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