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OPUS News

Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 5 released on the same day? [crazy world edition]

Feb 4, 1:07 PMFeb 11, 11:59 PM

1%chance

5125909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13768

417

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2410099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 4.6 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Jan 4, 3:48 PMFeb 28, 3:48 PM

39.84%chance

417973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

814

Will Anthropic publicly acknowledge a significant/systematic degradation of Claude Opus 4.5 by February 29, 2026?

Jan 27, 7:32 PMMar 2, 11:59 PM

2.64%chance

156675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6078

165

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Feb 2, 4:11 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

68.78%chance

342698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

957

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Jan 16, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.14%chance

192314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1948

513

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

5765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will Claude Opus 4.6 be profitable on Prediction Arena during its first 14 days of trading?

Feb 5, 9:02 PMApr 1, 7:59 PM

54.61%chance

5702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

912

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.08%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

989

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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