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Prediction markets for OPUS

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

May 19, 1:01 AMJul 19, 1:00 AM

58.95%chance

496593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

835

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon

Feb 20, 7:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

295891

OptionProbability

30h - 32.5h

Other

27.5h - 30h

32.5h - 35h

25h - 27.5h

35h - 37.5h

37.5h - 40h

22.5h - 25h

15h - 17.5h

17.5h - 20h

20h - 22.5h

<15h

16

15

14

13

11

10

9

5

2

2

2

1

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

394973

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Odyssey

Claude Ballad

Claude Epic

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Canon

Claude Requiem

Claude Chronicle

Claude Parable

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude Legend

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

31

24

23

18

18

18

16

16

16

15

14

12

11

10

9

4

2

1

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.66%chance

6865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMAug 31, 10:00 PM

32%chance

21800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

59

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

63.89%chance

7691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

128

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.62%chance

5415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

996

Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon

May 30, 3:42 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

6374

OptionProbability

18h - 20h

20h - 22h

16h - 18h

22h - 24h

24h-26h

Other

<10h

10h - 12h

12h - 14h

14h - 16h

27

21

15

11

6

5

4

4

4

4

Will "Claude Opus 4.6 is Driven" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.56%chance

5237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

970

Will "Opus 4.6 Reasoning Doesn't Verbalize Alignmen..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 8:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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