OR News

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9%chance

1246743560

OptionVotes

YES

3182

315

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

YES

5682

4007

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

21.49%chance

907523247

OptionVotes

YES

2238

750

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447144

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

Before January 2029

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

24972874

OptionVotes

YES

7846

5630

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

38.27%chance

6939358

OptionVotes

YES

63161

40169

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

33.7%chance

6122680

OptionVotes

YES

13650

7407

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

YES

11052

10904

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.42%chance

227750

OptionVotes

YES

12660

7899

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.39%chance

196976

OptionVotes

YES

13522

7406

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

43.81%chance

284965

OptionVotes

YES

10585

9510

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

OR News

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

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