OR News

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.4%chance

1238729127

OptionVotes

YES

2345

427

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41%chance

596581935

OptionVotes

YES

3190

1496

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18.48%chance

898515424

OptionVotes

YES

2483

689

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103446824

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

Before January 2029

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

49.02%chance

6123658

OptionVotes

YES

49780

48722

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.8%chance

6122391

OptionVotes

YES

13939

7262

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

YES

11052

10904

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

22.74%chance

109098

OptionVotes

YES

18437

5421

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.43%chance

207725

OptionVotes

YES

12657

7901

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

13549

7392

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

43.16%chance

254435

OptionVotes

YES

10737

9394

OR News

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

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