OR News

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9.38%chance

1252757081

OptionVotes

YES

3110

322

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

619656532

OptionVotes

YES

5617

4107

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18.93%chance

919546151

OptionVotes

YES

2443

698

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447885

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

YES

7852

5623

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

52.56%chance

7761833

OptionVotes

YES

53508

47064

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.5%chance

6422808

OptionVotes

YES

13402

7535

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

2910468

OptionVotes

YES

108509

104617

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.42%chance

227750

OptionVotes

YES

12660

7899

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

13559

7386

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

46.81%chance

315823

OptionVotes

YES

10060

9921

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

OR News

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

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