OR News

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

22%chance

829421112

OptionVotes

YES

2200

759

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

95382487

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2030

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.05%chance

480364042

OptionVotes

YES

2865

2074

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.25%chance

5818669

OptionVotes

YES

14461

7017

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.28%chance

5018281

OptionVotes

YES

44742

35956

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

32.15%chance

2415993

OptionVotes

YES

14528

6883

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

YES

11052

10904

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.19%chance

207525

OptionVotes

YES

12457

8028

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.74%chance

306234

OptionVotes

YES

14661

6824

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

10480

9542

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

11755

8505

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

45.27%chance

171797

OptionVotes

YES

10257

9774

OR News

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

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