OR News

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

5791

4783

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

14%chance

981622437

OptionVotes

YES

2979

593

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

112449970

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

15%chance

405215507

OptionVotes

YES

3087

1013

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

11390

5011

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Mar 14, 9:28 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72.97%chance

11781270

OptionVotes

YES

1568

166

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.16%chance

4344500

OptionVotes

YES

128439

102675

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

24642

5236

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

14460

7017

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

3315534

OptionVotes

YES

15062

6649

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

YES

11052

10904

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.56%chance

237773

OptionVotes

YES

12623

7922

OR News

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Latest stories