OR News

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Jan 7, 4:02 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.98%chance

1208710451

OptionVotes

YES

1942

516

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

20.35%chance

872502538

OptionVotes

YES

2325

727

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

555501296

OptionVotes

YES

3489

1137

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

99443812

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

7527000

OptionVotes

YES

1911

1895

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

46.11%chance

5520913

OptionVotes

YES

52799

45984

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

27.06%chance

6120269

OptionVotes

YES

16061

6360

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.43%chance

207725

OptionVotes

YES

12657

7901

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

15284

6552

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.83%chance

95358

OptionVotes

YES

14984

6671

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

45.04%chance

181847

OptionVotes

YES

10307

9733

OR News

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Prediction markets for OR

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

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