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Orbit News

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

181162504

OptionProbability

Before 2027-05-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2027-03-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-09-16

98

97

96

96

94

89

85

66

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74%chance

18354039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1996

1193

Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?

Apr 10, 8:39 PMOct 2, 1:59 AM

90.62%chance

10730385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2035

568

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

5723189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12515

3696

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.76%chance

5313152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1962

41

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2041?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.12%chance

666463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

1047

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

275029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2499

478

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Nov 8, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.1%chance

334303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

1363

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Apr 1, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.43%chance

393048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2397

1846

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Mar 25, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.18%chance

371762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2571

1688

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

950

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.16%chance

11259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

869

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