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Orbit News

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

170142765

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

85

76

74

70

57

39

26

9

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.04%chance

18153882

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1998

1192

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

81%chance

7020293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1558

803

Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?

Feb 8, 5:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

0.87%chance

3710075

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4520

14

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.68%chance

368756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1508

137

Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?

Feb 2, 1:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1%chance

428396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3349

9

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.63%chance

264278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

658

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Apr 1, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.4%chance

382841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2505

1816

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Nov 8, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

242512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

950

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Mar 25, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.15%chance

341112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2044

1924

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

991

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