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Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4114777

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Political rival

State governor

Member of congress

State supreme court judge

Supreme court judge

Former US president

38

23

23

23

18

17

16

11

8

7

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

346931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6506

4501

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55317

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

10

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

43.81%chance

284965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10585

9510

SOAI#10: Trump issues an unconstitutional executive order to ban state AI legislation.

Oct 9, 11:09 PMJan 1, 12:08 AM

82.18%chance

343773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2147

466

Will limit order UI be understandable by mid 2026?

Jan 5, 9:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

20.42%chance

202570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1974

507

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.69%chance

261750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

222

Will Trump reverse Biden's order on making all federally funded research open access?

Nov 22, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.63%chance

5609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1579

633

Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM

69.02%chance

3538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

938

Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:57 PMOct 31, 5:57 PM

68.31%chance

3514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

949

Will Manifold allow sub-1% limit orders by EOY 2026?

Aug 14, 5:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.04%chance

7451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1424

702

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

Jun 20, 3:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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