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Prediction markets for Organisation

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.6%chance

18053773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1970

1202

Will any organisation launch a mission with the aim of adjusting the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4?

Feb 1, 12:38 AMDec 23, 3:59 PM

2.05%chance

167508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6905

145

By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.97%chance

393890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

815

Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles within two years?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMFeb 19, 10:59 PM

80.57%chance

402050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

965

By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources?

May 15, 1:28 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.63%chance

26921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1246

846

Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?

Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

83.62%chance

16401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

427

87

Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?

Jan 19, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

8251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

104

Will the United Kingdom cease to proscribe Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Jul 11, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.84%chance

9185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?

May 11, 5:01 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

6173

OptionProbability

SpaceX

NASA

Other

China National Space Administration

76

15

5

4

Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?

Jan 19, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

6130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

150

Will an organisation offer suborbital point-to-point transportation before 2030?

Oct 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

29.35%chance

9124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

127

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

48.46%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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