Ori News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93.01%chance

9128709797

OptionVotes

YES

18666

8825

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

10838

9495

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.71%chance

85131873

OptionVotes

YES

3204

808

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.06%chance

11691266

OptionVotes

YES

2079

646

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.48%chance

18377199

OptionVotes

YES

2274

1635

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Dec 4, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2336318

OptionProbability

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

<0.8

1.4-1.6

>=1.6

Will Elon Musk's political orientation change by the end of 2025?

Oct 9, 3:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.09%chance

16332897

OptionVotes

YES

3948

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

11%chance

10013541

OptionVotes

YES

3483

104

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

16.59%chance

539599

OptionVotes

YES

2120

204

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

1072

965

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

566226

OptionProbability

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

183986

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

Before 2026

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Prediction markets for Ori

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Prediction markets for Ori

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Will Elon Musk's political orientation change by the end of 2025?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

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