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Prediction markets for Oscars

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

17.24%chance

10017501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1914

966

How many 2026 Oscars will Donald Trump have on April 30?

Jan 19, 5:38 AMApr 29, 11:59 PM

93341

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3 - 5

6 - 11

More than 11

96

2

1

1

0

0

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

Dec 26, 12:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.83%chance

402972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

443

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

1821

Will Timothee Chalamet win an Oscar before the 5th Bitcoin halving?

Dec 8, 8:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37%chance

161917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

340

Will the Oscars have an award for stunt workers by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.38%chance

131176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

695

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

885

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

51.97%chance

24705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

803

Will a Bollywood or other Indian cinema movie win Best Picture at the Oscars / Academy Awards before the end of 2050?

Mar 25, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.35%chance

22616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

808

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

17.96%chance

19302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

902

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.35%chance

15231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

933

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