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Prediction markets for Other

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

20

19

19

10

9

8

4

2

0

0

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.7%chance

1739662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44399

7886

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

Jan 7, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.48%chance

13934221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5426

47

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

Nov 24, 2:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19216692

OptionProbability

UK

France

Other

Israel

UAE

Japan

South Korea

India

Canada

Germany

Russia

33

21

11

9

7

7

4

3

2

1

1

What other companies and brands will the Trump administration nationally socialize?

Aug 24, 3:22 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

346089

OptionProbability

Raytheon / RTX

Boeing

OAN

Lockheed Martin

ExxonMobil

Northrop Grumman

General Dynamics

Palantir

Chevron

Newsmax

SpaceX

CNN

TikTok

The Washington Post

27

24

23

21

20

20

20

17

15

14

10

10

7

6

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

165400

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

62

25

6

5

3

Will the first $10 Trillion company be a company other than Apple or Microsoft?

Mar 16, 9:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79%chance

302900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3709

1194

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.51%chance

452567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

1237

Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?

Apr 2, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.1%chance

311386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2259

1832

Will any country in Africa other than South Africa fully legalize gay marriage by the end of 2030?

Apr 7, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.9%chance

191077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

789

Will I personally know someone with a Neuralink or other brain chip implant by the end of 2032?

Apr 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.55%chance

31810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

1882

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