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Prediction markets for Other

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

120673430

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Saikat Chakrabarti

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

London Breed

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

55

26

15

2

1

1

1

1

0

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

116369729

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

8

7

5

4

1

0

0

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.73%chance

1737081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43981

7898

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

Nov 24, 2:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18615865

OptionProbability

UK

France

Other

Israel

UAE

Japan

India

Canada

South Korea

Germany

Russia

31

28

10

9

7

6

3

2

2

1

1

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Mar 28, 3:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.09%chance

375095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

919

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153650

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

53

28

8

7

4

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2040?

Feb 13, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.05%chance

152592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

468

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.39%chance

442564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

1234

Will the first $10 Trillion company be a company other than Apple or Microsoft?

Mar 16, 9:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.89%chance

281242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2186

1847

Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?

Apr 2, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.56%chance

291086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2101

1910

Will any country in Africa other than South Africa fully legalize gay marriage by the end of 2030?

Apr 7, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.87%chance

181057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

769

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