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Prediction markets for Outa

Major internet outage due to undersea cables breaking by end of 2026?

Aug 3, 12:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

32%chance

5723292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6332

1427

When will the AWS UAE outage be recovered?

Mar 4, 11:59 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

23900

OptionProbability

Before Apr 1, 2026

Before Mar 8, 2026

Before Mar 12, 2026

Before Mar 17, 2026

Before Mar 24, 2026

7

0

0

0

0

Will Crowdstrike be found guilty or settle for securities fraud before 2027 (related to their 2024 outage)

Jul 25, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.5%chance

102186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2920

342

Will there be a United States congressional hearing about the CrowdStrike-caused IT outage?

Jul 19, 10:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

13798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Nov 26, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.84%chance

11650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

38

Claude outages caused by the U.S. Government?

Mar 2, 4:51 PMMar 8, 6:59 AM

14.33%chance

5538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

How many outages will CloudFlare have in 2026?

Dec 13, 6:45 AMDec 13, 6:59 AM

5514

OptionProbability

4 - 5

6 - 7

10+

8 - 9

2 - 3

0 - 1

27

27

21

18

5

1

Will sabotage cause 250k+ power outage in a U.S. megacity by 2026?

Jan 15, 6:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

10480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

79

Another serious route 1 Pacific Coast Highway outage occurs by the end of 2029

Jan 16, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.64%chance

5465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

772

2+ day GPS outage before 2032 in the USA

May 27, 9:28 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

39.48%chance

12459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

77

Will a major internet outage caused by undersea cable failure occur before July 1, 2026?

Feb 12, 1:59 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

6273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Coinbase Outage/Freeze by 2030?

Nov 12, 12:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.02%chance

7182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

115

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