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Prediction markets for Outdoor

How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record?

Aug 6, 11:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1510359

OptionProbability

>6.30

6.30

6.25 (record at time of market creation)

6.26

6.27

6.28

6.29

91

6

1

1

1

1

1

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Aug 7, 7:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.58%chance

271461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1513

872

Will I run more than 1k everyday in 2026? (Outdoor only)

Feb 1, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

141154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1565

639

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.53%chance

14792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will the sports gear tracking app reach at least 1,000 registered users by 31 December 2026?

Jan 8, 3:54 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

60%chance

10491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.95%chance

14474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

941

Private New Year's Eve Fireworks possible in Germany?

Jul 1, 10:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6340

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

92

83

76

Do the Walk for Peace Monks arrive in Washington DC and appear in photos with Trump?

Jan 3, 8:58 PMDec 31, 8:57 PM

15.59%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

What are some low-effort tips for living mentally and physically healthier, and longer? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 5:42 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

9246

OptionProbability

Other

Healthy diet

gratitude

Walking

Sleep

Spend time outdoors

Stay hydrated

Positive mindset

47

18

12

6

6

6

3

3

Does 3000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90.35%chance

8174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

291

134

How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record? (6.30m-6.40m+)

Sep 16, 12:26 AMJan 2, 1:26 AM

4134

OptionProbability

6.35

6.34

6.36

6.40 or greater

6.32

6.33

6.37

6.31

6.38

6.30 (world record at time of market creation)

6.39

12

11

11

11

10

10

9

8

7

6

5

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