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Oval Office News

    Prediction markets for Oval Office

    What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

    Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 24, 6:46 PM
    23842899

    OptionProbability

    Post a Tweet

    Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

    Bomb Iran

    Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

    Enrich himself & his family financially

    Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

    Play golf

    Shake hands with Xi Jinping

    Deny Climate Change

    Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

    Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

    Increase US oil production

    Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

    Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

    Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

    Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

    Shake hands with Putin

    Attend at least one current state leader funeral

    Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

    Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

    Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

    Shake hands with Donald Tusk

    Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

    Exercise

    Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

    Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

    Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

    Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

    Withdraw support for Ukraine

    Get impeached

    Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

    Have a net approval below -20% at any point

    Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

    Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

    Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

    Pardon himself

    Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

    Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

    Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

    Leave office early

    Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

    Reference "Situational Awareness"

    Start a war

    Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

    End SBA direct lending

    Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

    Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

    Eat a hamnhrb

    Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

    Pass away

    Die

    Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

    Attempt to stay in power for a third term

    Pardon SBF

    Make America Great Again

    Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

    Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

    Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

    Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

    Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

    Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

    Withdraw the US from NATO

    Ban TikTok

    Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

    Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

    Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

    Cry on camera

    Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

    Direct the killing of a political opponent

    Order a nuclear strike

    Do another Home Alone cameo

    Be removed via the 25th Amendment

    Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

    Buy Greenland

    Sign a bill into law on day one

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    96

    95

    90

    89

    89

    87

    85

    85

    81

    81

    79

    77

    75

    75

    72

    72

    71

    70

    66

    65

    64

    61

    61

    56

    55

    54

    54

    51

    49

    48

    42

    41

    41

    39

    38

    33

    32

    28

    28

    26

    26

    24

    24

    20

    18

    17

    16

    16

    15

    14

    14

    13

    12

    10

    10

    9

    9

    8

    7

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    3

    2

    0

    OptionProbability

    United States

    France

    United Kingdom

    Canada

    Norway

    Iceland

    Germany

    27

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    What will be in the Trump Presidential Library?

    Oct 7, 2:48 AMFeb 1, 3:42 AM
    19962

    OptionProbability

    Statue of Trump

    MAGA hat gallery

    Twitter/X tweet archive wall

    Quatar Jet

    A box office charging at least $50 for admission

    Replica Oval Office

    Border wall model with donor plaques

    Impeachment memorabilia exhibit

    Golf simulator featuring Trump courses

    VIP tour priced at $250

    Hall of NDAs

    Gold toilet

    Gift shop selling $99 commemorative NFTs

    Animatronic Trump

    Interactive January 6th augmented reality experience

    Sharpie-altered hurricane map display

    Gold-plated elevator

    “Covfefe” coffee bar

    98

    96

    76

    36

    34

    34

    25

    21

    20

    20

    15

    14

    13

    12

    9

    8

    7

    7

    Will Elon Musk sit behind the presidential desk in the Oval Office?

    Feb 16, 8:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
    7.93%chance
    10568

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    341

    29

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