Oversight Project News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

YES

1156

931

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

15558

OptionVotes

YES

1169

959

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

472

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

California SB 607 Passes?

Jun 24, 3:08 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

44.28%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

112

Oversight Project News

Prediction markets for Oversight Project

Prediction markets for Oversight Project

Prediction markets for Oversight Project

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

California SB 607 Passes?

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