Oversight Project News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

YES

1142

876

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM

148605

OptionProbability

4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026

8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes

8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026

3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments

5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments

6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments

1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026

2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments

3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes

1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments

2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026

7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments

5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes

2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes

7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes

4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments

1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes

6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes

5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026

3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026

7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026

6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026

4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes

8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments

100

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

YES

1169

959

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

Oversight Project News

Prediction markets for Oversight Project

Prediction markets for Oversight Project

Prediction markets for Oversight Project

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

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