Owner News

Resided in the same state as the incident

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

US citizen

White

used a bolt action rifle

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Male

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

20-27 years old

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Skinny

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

ectomorph body type

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

Will plead guilty

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Furry

Gamer

Is named Tyler Robinson

Hunter

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

disliked Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

Strongly opposes zionism

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Will kill again (including suicide)

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Dies in prison

has used the word yiff in written communication

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

has vore kink

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Fan fiction author

White cis-hetero Christian man

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

was prescribed psychiatric medication

Owns a fursuit

Participates in this market

Transgender

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

psychedelics user

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Current or previous student at University of Utah

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

has significant student load debt

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Had diagnosed mental illness

Is right wing

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

White Nationalist

Left-handed

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

History of domestic violence

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Ex law enforcement

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Had felony conviction previously

Incel

groyper

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

is Mossad

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Escapes carceral detention

Was a student at UVU

Involved in Effective Altruism

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Has a parent who drives for Uber

Parent

decel

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

Indian national

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Is or was a computer science student

Married

Manifold assists with his capture

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Taylor Swift has been married

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

True Detective Season 5 released

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

1200 or more official pokemon

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

Taylor Swift has been divorced

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

China has landed a human on the moon

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

Margin of victory is less than 2 3/4 lengths

Jimmy Carter is alive at the conclusion of race

Official track condition will be Fast

Winning Horse's Number is Prime (1 is not prime)

The Kentucky Derby is not be raced two years in a row at any point before 2050

Winning jockey celebrates with fist pump

Winning jockey thanks owner first in post-race interview

3 words in the winning horse's name

Winner beats last year's winning time (2:01.57)

Winning horse's name is 10 or 11 letters long (not counting spaces)

A penis is hanging out on the track (jockey or spectator, not horse)

One or more horse participants die within a week of the race (before or after, during too)

Chicago Bears win their division before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears finish regular season with a winning record before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears fire head coach before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears have a player who gets league MVP before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears win league championship before the Chicago Bulls

NO

You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.

If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?

If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?

If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in

If your boat here sinks can you go in?

If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?

You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.

The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner

Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through

You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.

If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter

If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?

If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass

If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?

If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.

You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.

The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim

The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.

If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in

You can go through if you open the gate

You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner

If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in

Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate

You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space

You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.

You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.

Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?

This market will entirely be excluded from leagues

You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.

You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.

You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner

You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.

Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password

You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner

You can go in if you are ex navy.

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES