OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
put his name on a ship in the navy
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Says 6 7 (or variant)
Dep
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
ten or more protestors killed during term
Causes Tina Peters' early release
resume buying oil from Russia
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Pardon himself
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Implement a federal abortion ban
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Pardon p diddy
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Postpone the elections due to emergency
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
84
83
82
80
80
75
72
71
70
69
69
69
69
68
67
64
62
60
57
55
53
52
52
50
47
45
44
44
43
42
41
40
40
39
38
38
36
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
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28
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
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17
17
16
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16
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16
16
15
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15
15
15
15
15
15
15
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15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Margin of victory is less than 2 3/4 lengths
Jimmy Carter is alive at the conclusion of race
Official track condition will be Fast
Winning Horse's Number is Prime (1 is not prime)
The Kentucky Derby is not be raced two years in a row at any point before 2050
Winning jockey celebrates with fist pump
Winning jockey thanks owner first in post-race interview
3 words in the winning horse's name
Winner beats last year's winning time (2:01.57)
Winning horse's name is 10 or 11 letters long (not counting spaces)
A penis is hanging out on the track (jockey or spectator, not horse)
One or more horse participants die within a week of the race (before or after, during too)
Winning jockey is female
100
100
100
100
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2495
370
OptionProbability
Christian
Male
White
Previously insulted by Donald Trump
Both parents born in the US
Publicly admitted to being a gun owner
Attended an Ivy League
Has black or brown hair
Taller than 6 feet
Former lawyer
Republican
60+
Has been divorced
Has committed a felony
Former or current US senator
Has run for president before
Speaks another language fluently
Wears glasses
94
83
82
66
62
62
61
58
50
50
46
40
38
34
31
30
24
20
OptionProbability
You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.
If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?
If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in
If your boat here sinks can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?
You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.
The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner
Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through
You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.
If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter
If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?
If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass
If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?
If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.
You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.
The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim
The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.
If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in
You can go through if you open the gate
You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner
If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in
Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate
You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space
You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.
You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.
Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?
This market will entirely be excluded from leagues
You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.
You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.
You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner
You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.
Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password
You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner
You can go in if you are ex navy.
This market gets more than 100 bettors
86
77
77
75
74
65
58
57
57
56
56
52
50
50
50
49
47
46
44
44
39
38
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
32
31
25
20
18
OptionVotes
YES
NO
258
29
OptionVotes
YES
NO
184
35
OptionVotes
YES
NO
169
37
OptionVotes
YES
NO
206
173
OptionVotes
YES
NO
100
51
OptionVotes
NO
YES
109
92
