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Top stories

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

US Foreign Policy

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

Authors

22

5 months ago

Prediction markets for PA

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

45%chance

231391548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6865

2234

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

147221643

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

88

12

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

12858343

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

59

40

1

Will the New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 Super Bowl LX

Feb 10, 8:43 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

31.85%chance

10631684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29635

25512

Will the Seahawks beat the Patriots in the 2026 Superbowl?

Jan 26, 2:52 AMFeb 9, 4:00 AM

68.84%chance

7218260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

27386

23825

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

224499

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

20

6

5

5

3

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.91%chance

4621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

947

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 5:20 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10441

OptionProbability

YES

NO

248

161

PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO

Oct 18, 11:14 AMNov 5, 10:59 PM

96%chance

3390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

16.66%chance

8227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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