PA News

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

3 months ago

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.45%chance

958695692

OptionVotes

YES

10084

9803

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

48915

11661

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

95382487

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2030

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.04%chance

194268635

OptionVotes

YES

5839

3348

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

11141500

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.13%chance

11518640

OptionVotes

YES

15117

7622

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

214439

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 5:20 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10441

OptionProbability

YES

248

161

PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO

Oct 18, 11:14 AMNov 5, 10:59 PM

96%chance

3390

OptionVotes

YES

490

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

16.66%chance

8227

OptionVotes

YES

224

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

207

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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