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Top stories

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

US Foreign Policy

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

Authors

22

1 year ago

Prediction markets for PA

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.69%chance

998752698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12331

8038

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

268219925

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

67

32

1

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

Nov 6, 12:20 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

841502

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

67

33

0

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic primary for PA Senate Seat?

Mar 20, 6:48 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

2.47%chance

195236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3108

906

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234514

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

19

6

5

5

3

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.91%chance

4621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

947

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 5:20 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10441

OptionProbability

YES

NO

248

161

PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO

Oct 18, 11:14 AMNov 5, 10:59 PM

96%chance

3390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

16.66%chance

8227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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