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Top stories

Illinois Lawmakers Press for Session as RTA Faces $771 Million Transit Gap

Illinois Lawmakers Press for Session as RTA Faces $771 Million Transit Gap

Authors

3

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Pace

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

21358835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5411

1075

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

10.33%chance

11920234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

339

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

16.19%chance

5313778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1947

567

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM

9.37%chance

508826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3109

322

How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?

Apr 25, 1:13 AMApr 25, 6:59 AM

85305

OptionProbability

Below $500,000

$500,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

$3,000,000 - $4,000,000

Above $4,000,000

34

18

17

12

11

6

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.49%chance

483349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1417

1169

Will "this rapid-fire, breakneck pace continue for four full years"?

Feb 4, 9:59 PMNov 5, 10:59 PM

27.63%chance

201909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

129

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

232

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

822

2027 Humanoid 10K: 8-Minute Mile Pace Challenge

Feb 5, 1:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

92.25%chance

3245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

345

29

Will the Lancet Retract the PACE Trial before 2030

Jun 28, 9:27 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

15.86%chance

2133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

43

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