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Pace News

Illinois Lawmakers Press for Session as RTA Faces $771 Million Transit Gap

Illinois Lawmakers Press for Session as RTA Faces $771 Million Transit Gap

3

1 year ago

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.82%chance

21561933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8597

902

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.52%chance

5613897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

605

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

May 23, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

114161

OptionProbability

>=150K (deceleration scenario, like 2024)

<=150K (cuts collapse, would require a near-halt in H2)

>=225K( sustained current pace; rivals 2023)

>= 300K (acceleration; AI wave intensifies)

>= 400K (new all-time high, crisis territory)

73

27

12

8

5

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.11%chance

493399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

1219

Will "this rapid-fire, breakneck pace continue for four full years"?

Feb 4, 9:59 PMNov 5, 10:59 PM

27.63%chance

201909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

129

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will OpenAI make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:28 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

91780

OptionProbability

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

9.01 - 10 months

8.01 - 9 months

7.01 - 8 months

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

22

22

16

11

7

6

4

4

4

4

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Sep 12, 3:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27.62%chance

101309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1619

618

2027 Humanoid 10K: 8-Minute Mile Pace Challenge

Feb 5, 1:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

92.25%chance

3245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

345

29

Will the Lancet Retract the PACE Trial before 2030

Jun 28, 9:27 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

15.86%chance

2133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

43

Will OpenAI or Anthropic “Pace the Frontier” Before 2028?

Sep 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.8%chance

275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will Anthropic make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

7.01 - 8 months

8.01 - 9 months

9.01 - 10 months

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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