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Prediction markets for Paces AI

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.34%chance

21053727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3220

1309

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

10.33%chance

11920234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

339

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM

15.39%chance

468196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

263666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

811

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.49%chance

483349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1417

1169

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will IPO count exceed 300 any year between 2024-2027? (AI boom?)

Apr 9, 6:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.58%chance

182728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

937

Will DeepSeek release V4 in March 2026?

Mar 3, 10:16 AMApr 3, 3:00 AM

10.18%chance

322671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

27

will mr beast will achive 500 million subscribers before 9/11

Mar 7, 8:53 AMSep 10, 11:59 PM

30%chance

8700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

83

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.49%chance

8266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will SpaceX complete an initial public offering (IPO) by the end of 2026 and at what valuation?

Feb 19, 9:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6172

OptionProbability

No IPO by Dec 31, 2026

Yes — valuation $1T–$1.5T

Yes — valuation $500B–$1T

Yes — valuation under $500B

Yes — valuation above $1.5T

41

20

17

11

10

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