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Prediction markets for Paces AI

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.86%chance

21461877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8541

905

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

5.31%chance

12321574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4221

237

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

21.5%chance

427083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

921

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.7%chance

295025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

832

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

134235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.11%chance

493399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

1219

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will IPO count exceed 300 any year between 2024-2027? (AI boom?)

Apr 9, 6:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.58%chance

182728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

937

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will OpenAI make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:28 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

81775

OptionProbability

11.01 - 12 months

10.01 - 11 months

9.01 - 10 months

8.01 - 9 months

7.01 - 8 months

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

23

22

16

11

7

6

4

4

4

4

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Sep 12, 3:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27.62%chance

101309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1619

618

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

9387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will Anthropic make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

7.01 - 8 months

8.01 - 9 months

9.01 - 10 months

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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