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Prediction markets for Paces AI

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

21358835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5411

1075

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

6.99%chance

12120999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3646

274

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM

4.99%chance

5912182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4362

229

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

263666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

811

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.49%chance

483349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1417

1169

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will IPO count exceed 300 any year between 2024-2027? (AI boom?)

Apr 9, 6:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.58%chance

182728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

937

[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development

Mar 24, 2:29 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

9598

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

36

32

19

8

1

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

8367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

786

How many psets does x do?

Jun 21, 6:34 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

6209

OptionProbability

3 - 5

0 - 2

6 - 8

9 - 11

12 - 14

15 - 17

18 - 20

Above 20

30

20

18

7

7

7

7

5

Will I be below 265 pounds by January 11, 2027? (Today: 318.8 pounds)

Jun 1, 9:05 PMJan 10, 11:59 PM

43%chance

11208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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