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Prediction markets for Paces AI

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.34%chance

21053727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3220

1309

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

17.86%chance

11319267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

466

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

325654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

341

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

263666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

811

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.49%chance

483349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1417

1169

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will IPO count exceed 300 any year between 2024-2027? (AI boom?)

Apr 9, 6:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.58%chance

182728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

937

AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027

Apr 4, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.33%chance

15739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

215

[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development

Mar 24, 2:29 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

8427

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2026

14

13

9

9

6

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