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Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.88%chance

19492958217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40002

4496

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160478553

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Grok 5

GPT-6

Gemini 4

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Gemini 3.5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

88

84

83

83

79

79

74

74

72

65

61

56

52

49

44

26

19

19

18

13

10

6

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2231111

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

42

21

7

0

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

6215941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

53.3%chance

6313398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

943

Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)?

Jun 2, 10:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.44%chance

124918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

911

Will Cameron R get a girlfriend before..?

Feb 15, 1:28 AMJun 16, 12:24 AM

113288

OptionProbability

He holds his high school diploma

Before jan 1 2027 12am pacific time

Before 12am pacific first day of school 12th grade

45

41

37

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

85.1%chance

92272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2390

418

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

10.68%chance

152161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2893

346

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.46%chance

41363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2331

429

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will Manifold Markets implement one of my suggestions by Midnight Pacific Time, December 23, 2026? (12/23/26)

Jul 22, 2:05 PMDec 22, 11:59 PM

35.8%chance

456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

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