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Prediction markets for PAG

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.35%chance

72114465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15315

596

Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.55%chance

2834265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8247

121

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

746

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1097

737

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

Who is Elliot Page playing in The Odyssey?

May 10, 2:43 AMJul 18, 2:41 AM

15418

OptionProbability

Someone Else

Achilles

Tiresias

78

14

8

How many pages will the fifth volume of Robert Caro's "The Years of Lyndon Johnson" have?

Feb 27, 2:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6320

OptionProbability

Above 300

Above 600

Above 900

Above 1200

Above 1500

Above 2000

Above 2500

96

91

75

57

36

26

20

Will Manifold’s Wikipedia page have a criticism section by end of 2030?

Jan 12, 12:07 AMJan 1, 12:06 AM

43.83%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

A free web browser can search for text within images on web pages, by mid 2027

Nov 25, 9:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50.19%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

100+ page biography of Jose Luis Ricon by 2030

Apr 23, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

How many days in July 2026 will the Claude Status Page report an incident for core systems?

Jun 16, 7:57 PMJul 31, 8:59 PM

323

OptionProbability

18 - 19

16 - 17

0 - 15

20 - 31

34

31

18

18

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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