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Prediction markets for PAG

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.35%chance

72114465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15315

596

Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.57%chance

2834266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8306

120

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

746

Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

91676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

547

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.2%chance

18872

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1147

675

Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 8, 6:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.27%chance

9831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1745

573

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

7200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

By 2028, given a one-page description of a task X, AI can download and fine- tune existing open source LLMs for X?

Jan 5, 11:26 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

75.02%chance

9195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

75

By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?

Apr 9, 2:28 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

62.04%chance

8181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

111

Will hosting a site on GitHub pages cost money before 2027?

Jan 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.9%chance

8148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

152

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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