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Prediction markets for PAG

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.35%chance

72114465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15315

596

Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.55%chance

2834265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8247

121

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

746

I remember this market and open this page between May 1-3, 2026?

Aug 3, 9:23 PMMay 4, 9:19 PM

77.14%chance

61083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1837

544

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1097

737

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

[FUN] Pagac Group Stock

Oct 17, 11:08 PMDec 10, 5:59 AM

76.18%chance

2143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

48

Wikipedia pages about books have useful information on book length (word count) by mid 2028

Apr 29, 8:08 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.73%chance

6129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

83

150+ page biography of Nick Cammarata by EOY2026

Feb 17, 10:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.62%chance

175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Who DOSsed Finnish Defence Ministry web pages? (suggest answers, may take time to resolve)

Sep 25, 1:19 AMOct 2, 8:59 PM

368

OptionProbability

Russia

Other

Malta

Iran

North Korea

Non state actor

China

Israel

USA

30

12

10

9

9

9

8

8

7

150+ page fanfic romance novel of janus/@repligate with gwern by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.33%chance

316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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