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In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?

Oct 14, 2:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

173242

OptionProbability

2030

2031

2032

2028

2029

2026

2027

2037

Not in this century

2033

2034

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

Later this century

Other

2025

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

YES

1508

1036

Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?

Mar 15, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.81%chance

151042

OptionVotes

YES

503

Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 30, 12:21 AMOct 2, 12:25 PM

38.56%chance

11352

OptionVotes

YES

122

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4251

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 29, 4:11 AMDec 4, 1:25 PM

24.77%chance

4243

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030?

Jun 14, 7:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.09%chance

576

OptionVotes

YES

Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027?

Jun 14, 8:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

280

Page Industries News

Prediction markets for Page Industries

Prediction markets for Page Industries

Prediction markets for Page Industries

In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Will an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?

Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030?

Will the KAI KF-21 have entered service in South Korea or Indonesia by the end of 2027?

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

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