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Prediction markets for PAGS

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

1.02%chance

73125453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25871

431

Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.57%chance

2834266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8306

120

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

746

Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.21%chance

102486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.85%chance

92142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2727

367

Will Sydney Von Arx have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Oct 4, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.29%chance

51728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2354

425

Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 8, 6:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.3%chance

10881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1795

557

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.2%chance

18872

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1147

675

By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?

Apr 9, 2:28 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

62.04%chance

8181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

111

100+ page biography of Jose Luis Ricon by 2030

Apr 23, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Grok create automated 2-page biographies of any Twitter user by EOY2026?

Jan 30, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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