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Prediction markets for Paid

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818873

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

18

0

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.42%chance

136299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5820

309

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Feb 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:47 PM

72.03%chance

293110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

623

Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?

Dec 20, 6:52 PMDec 21, 6:50 PM

52.83%chance

142036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91433

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2038

Before 2034

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

After 2040

91

90

84

84

78

69

66

8

Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

May 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.18%chance

121168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?

Jun 18, 3:36 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.53%chance

8695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

1280

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.65%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

845

What payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?

Sep 7, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7420

OptionProbability

Dummy Payload

CubeSat Rideshare

Commercial Satellite

Satellite Constellation

Scientific Satellite

Navigation Satellite

Technology Demonstration Payload

Earth Observation Satellite

Military Satellite

Military Cargo

Space Telescope

32

31

24

22

21

21

21

20

14

13

8

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

How many paid subscribers to The BS Detector will I have at the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 2:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6112

OptionProbability

Other

41-50

11-20

10 or less

21-30

31-40

27

18

15

14

13

13

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