Paid News

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818719

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Feb 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:47 PM

69.24%chance

293067

OptionVotes

YES

1500

667

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.21%chance

123039

OptionVotes

YES

2560

534

Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?

Dec 20, 6:52 PMDec 21, 6:50 PM

52.98%chance

142033

OptionVotes

YES

1062

942

What kind of paid subscription service will be offered by Manifold before 2030?

Jan 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

261657

OptionProbability

Paid subscription to get extra boost on your markets

Paid subscription to get cosmetics on your avatar/markets

Paid subscription to get cheaper question creation

Paid subscription to get larger/faster loans

Paid subscription to get priority/exclusive matches in match marking on Manifold.love

Paid subscription to get news feed provided by Manifold

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

YES

1286

778

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.76%chance

4380

OptionVotes

YES

1134

882

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Feb 3, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.65%chance

8212

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 3, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.73%chance

9178

OptionVotes

YES

133

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

1119

949

How many paid subscribers to The BS Detector will I have at the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 2:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6112

OptionProbability

Other

41-50

11-20

10 or less

21-30

31-40

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

Mar 12, 4:12 AMMar 20, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

130

111

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Prediction markets for Paid

Prediction markets for Paid

Prediction markets for Paid

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?

What kind of paid subscription service will be offered by Manifold before 2030?

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

How many paid subscribers to The BS Detector will I have at the end of 2026?

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

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