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When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

136309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5546

319

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

52620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3449

306

When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91433

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2038

Before 2034

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

After 2040

91

90

84

84

78

69

66

8

Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

May 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.11%chance

131218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1774

564

Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?

Jun 18, 3:36 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.53%chance

8695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

1280

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.48%chance

8672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Feb 3, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.93%chance

11239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 3, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.73%chance

9178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will I get paid from a side gig as an independent contractor.

Sep 2, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:30 AM

3150

OptionProbability

The Deal Succeeds & I Get Paid

The Deal Succeeds but I Am Not Paid

The Client Flees (Deal Fails)

37

34

29

How many paid subscribers to The BS Detector will I have at the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 2:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6112

OptionProbability

Other

41-50

11-20

10 or less

21-30

31-40

27

18

15

14

13

13

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