Paid News

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2612744

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

How many paid Waymo rides per week at the end of 2025?

Jul 26, 2:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2310740

OptionProbability

400k-800k

200k-400k

>=800k

<100k

100k-200k

Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025?

Jan 28, 2:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.15%chance

432023

OptionVotes

YES

1088

685

Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025?

Nov 20, 4:11 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

30.89%chance

171178

OptionVotes

YES

1535

611

When will Apple, Inc. turn Apple Intelligence into a paid, premium service and begin charging users for access?

Jun 11, 2:34 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

161081

OptionProbability

2028+ or never

2027

2026

2025

2024

What kind of paid subscription service will be offered by Manifold before 2030?

Jan 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24617

OptionProbability

Paid subscription to get extra boost on your markets

Paid subscription to get cosmetics on your avatar/markets

Paid subscription to get cheaper question creation

Paid subscription to get larger/faster loans

Paid subscription to get priority/exclusive matches in match marking on Manifold.love

Paid subscription to get news feed provided by Manifold

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

YES

1286

778

Will Scott Alexander state that Vitor has paid him for winning their AI image bet this year?

Jul 9, 1:56 AMJan 1, 2:49 AM

39.76%chance

14480

OptionVotes

YES

123

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

1089

919

In 2025, will I think I should have paid attention to the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly spike?

Jul 20, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

596

OptionVotes

YES

191

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

Mar 12, 4:12 AMMar 20, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

130

111

I'm about to turn 24 soon. Induce existential crisis vibes and get paid mana.

Jan 5, 11:54 AM

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Prediction markets for Paid

Prediction markets for Paid

Prediction markets for Paid

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

How many paid Waymo rides per week at the end of 2025?

Will Manifold offer any kind of paid subscription service before the end of 2025?

Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025?

When will Apple, Inc. turn Apple Intelligence into a paid, premium service and begin charging users for access?

What kind of paid subscription service will be offered by Manifold before 2030?

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Will Scott Alexander state that Vitor has paid him for winning their AI image bet this year?

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

In 2025, will I think I should have paid attention to the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly spike?

Will the AI alignment slack's entire history stop being accessible (eg if its paid plan on slack is discontinued by 2029

I'm about to turn 24 soon. Induce existential crisis vibes and get paid mana.

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