OptionProbability
United States vs. Iran
Insurgencies in Pakistan
Insurgencies in Iran
Kurdish Nationalist Conflicts
Iraqi Conflict
Insurgencies in India
India vs. Pakistan
Russian Civil Conflict
China vs. Taiwan
United States Civil Conflict
100
81
68
46
31
28
17
15
11
4
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
55
37
32
14
12
10
8
