OptionProbability
Insurgencies in Iran
United States vs. Iran
Insurgencies in Pakistan
Insurgencies in India
Iraqi Conflict
Kurdish Nationalist Conflicts
India vs. Pakistan
China vs. Taiwan
Russian Civil Conflict
United States Civil Conflict
100
92
18
14
9
8
7
6
3
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
57
34
32
12
10
