OptionProbability
Insurgencies in Pakistan
Insurgencies in Iran
United States vs. Iran
Insurgencies in India
Iraqi Conflict
Kurdish Nationalist Conflicts
India vs. Pakistan
Russian Civil Conflict
China vs. Taiwan
United States Civil Conflict
100
9
8
5
3
2
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
62
32
31
14
12
10
