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Prediction markets for Papers
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.91%chance
48290236
OptionVotes
7317
4961
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
68.81%chance
9511449
OptionVotes
1278
769
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM
49.32%chance
425307
OptionVotes
1014
986
Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037
Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM
49.5%chance
191780
OptionVotes
1010
990
Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?
Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.04%chance
141122
OptionVotes
1879
176
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
56.48%chance
31967
OptionVotes
1131
753
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
71.61%chance
29939
OptionVotes
1039
981
OptionVotes
1062
942
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.5%chance
270
OptionVotes
1030
971
Will "A Review of Anthropic's Global Workspace Paper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 8, 3:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50