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Prediction markets for Papers
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
55%chance
179214523
OptionVotes
6120
2975
Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?
Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM
2.56%chance
143101879
OptionVotes
38463
440
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.58%chance
47789897
OptionVotes
7410
4932
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
29.43%chance
806996
OptionVotes
1905
448
Will any country stop using paper currency by end 2029?
Sep 9, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.09%chance
422838
OptionVotes
1140
926
Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037
Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM
46.38%chance
161699
OptionVotes
1075
930
Will there be a research paper that uses Manifold data and has 100 Google Scholar citations by the end of 2025?
Mar 1, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.55%chance
201635
OptionVotes
1760
267
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
59.72%chance
31917
OptionVotes
1081
822
If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?
Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM
44.58%chance
20888
OptionVotes
1075
927
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
65.12%chance
28746
OptionVotes
1092
763
Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?
Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.98%chance
13533
OptionVotes
1290
481
Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000