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Prediction markets for Papers
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
45%chance
231391548
OptionVotes
6865
2234
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
24%chance
48090112
OptionVotes
7294
4968
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM
46%chance
384735
OptionVotes
1083
923
Will any country stop using paper currency by end 2029?
Sep 9, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.09%chance
422838
OptionVotes
1140
926
Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037
Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM
46.38%chance
161699
OptionVotes
1075
930
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
71.61%chance
29939
OptionVotes
1039
981
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
59.72%chance
31917
OptionVotes
1081
822
Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?
Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.98%chance
13533
OptionVotes
1290
481
Will "Anthropic’s “Hot Mess” paper overstates its c..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 4, 11:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50