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Prediction markets for PARA

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

7316447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

985

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.28%chance

9515065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1619

500

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM

77.09%chance

263706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1834

545

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Jan 8, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88%chance

202332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2600

239

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.96%chance

291950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

762

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

141180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Paraplegic Does a Backflip by 2035

Mar 26, 6:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.65%chance

251011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

751

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

25717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

925

Will there be more paralegals and legal assistants employed in 2026 than today?

Mar 18, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.8%chance

16660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

683

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

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