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Prediction markets for PARA

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.22%chance

8020308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1441

335

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.47%chance

10016704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

636

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM

77.79%chance

273867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Jan 8, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.05%chance

212340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2605

239

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

292050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

712

Will "mitochondrial endosymbiosis" be considered the great filter in the fermi paradox in 2050?

Sep 8, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.1%chance

121333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2127

470

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

141180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Paraplegic Does a Backflip by 2035

Mar 26, 6:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.65%chance

251011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

751

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.3%chance

26792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

887

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

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