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Prediction markets for PARA

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.78%chance

3774174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24016

4162

Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)

Jun 22, 6:13 AMDec 31, 10:29 AM

28.25%chance

10818771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3121

2545

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.28%chance

9515065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1619

500

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60%chance

7214451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1437

338

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Jan 8, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88%chance

202332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2600

239

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.96%chance

291950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

762

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?

Jun 22, 6:04 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

26.18%chance

25703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

887

Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?

Jun 22, 6:04 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

41.54%chance

18330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

887

Will Manifold topic pages support URL query parameters for status, sort order, etc before 2026?

Dec 29, 7:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?

Jun 22, 6:05 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

26.69%chance

15195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

948

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