Parity News

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9845254

OptionVotes

YES

1262

800

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

14083

6658

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

YES

1595

604

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

55%chance

191041

OptionVotes

YES

1006

989

In what year will the Chinese nuclear arsenal reach parity with the US and Russians?

Dec 13, 6:02 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

7360

OptionProbability

Other

2030

2029

2028

2026

2027

2025

2024

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Dec 18, 3:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8243

OptionProbability

X maintains higher daily active users than Threads through mid-2026

Another platform (not Threads or Bluesky) overtakes X by mid-2026

Threads overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

Bluesky overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

X and Threads reach parity in daily active users by mid-2026

Market resolves N/A due to unclear measurement methodology

Other

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

122

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Oct 21, 8:51 PMOct 28, 11:59 PM

36.7%chance

789

OptionVotes

YES

126

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Other

Simulating Time With Square-Root Space

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

Will "The subset parity learning problem: much more..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 1, 3:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Prediction markets for Parity

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Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

In what year will the Chinese nuclear arsenal reach parity with the US and Russians?

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Will "The subset parity learning problem: much more..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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