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Prediction markets for Party City

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.9%chance

9454630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7409

599

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.94%chance

172860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

922

872

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.72%chance

51508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Middle Class Income Tax Hike by 2029?

Sep 27, 12:14 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

51360

OptionProbability

No

Yes, Republican President

Yes, Democrat President

84

8

8

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.93%chance

9910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1494

669

London–NYC Vactrain by 2070?

Dec 13, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.35%chance

9358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

54

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 6th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5336

OptionProbability

Roger Niello (incumbent)

Sean Frame

Other

72

25

2

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

76.29%chance

10325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

83

Will a candidate explicitly running as a Socialist be elected to Philadelphia City Council by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

9301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

120

NYC-LA Vactrain by 2070?

Dec 17, 9:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.58%chance

6210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 32nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

483

OptionProbability

Kelly Seyarto (incumbent)

Other

76

24

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