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Prediction markets for Party City

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.72%chance

51508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Which party will win the 2026 Taipei City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6236

OptionProbability

KMT

TPP

DPP

Other

77

10

7

6

Which party will win the 2026 Tainan City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

175

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

Other

77

12

12

Which party will win the 2026 Taichung City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

150

OptionProbability

KMT

DPP

Other

63

23

15

Which party will win the 2026 Kaohsiung City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

340

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

Other

64

18

18

Which party will win the 2026 New Taipei City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

237

OptionProbability

KMT

TPP

DPP

Other

33

28

20

19

Which party will win the 2026 Hsinchu City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

234

OptionProbability

Other

TPP

DPP

KMT

44

24

20

12

Which party will win the 2026 Chiayi City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

KMT

DPP

Other

55

25

20

Which party will win the 2026 Taoyuan City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

Other

40

40

19

Which party will win the 2026 Keelung City Mayoral Election?

Dec 23, 3:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

KMT

DPP

Other

47

30

23

What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

DPP

KMT

TPP

Independents

Other

20

20

20

20

20

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