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Prediction markets for Party City

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.56%chance

9354242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3578

713

Will Antoine Greizmann play a competitive match for Orlando City before EOY 2026

Feb 24, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.16%chance

710783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5845

171

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

152709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

722

To which political party will Johannesburg's next mayor belong?

May 17, 9:29 PMMay 18, 5:59 AM

22410

OptionProbability

Democratic Alliance

African National Congress

Action South Africa

uMkhonto weSizwe

Patriotic Alliance

Inkatha Freedom Party

Other

Economic Freedom Fighters

Build One South Africa

Rise Mzansi

Freedom Front Plus

United Democratic Movement

52

16

10

7

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.72%chance

51508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.4%chance

9860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

692

Middle Class Income Tax Hike by 2029?

Sep 27, 12:14 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

4560

OptionProbability

No

Yes, Republican President

Yes, Democrat President

60

20

20

Will a candidate explicitly running as a Socialist be elected to Philadelphia City Council by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

9301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

120

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3185

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

89

11

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 32nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

433

OptionProbability

Kelly Seyarto (incumbent)

Other

62

38

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