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Prediction markets for Party City

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

5931544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

93

Eric Adams no longer identifies as a Democrat by December 31, 2025

Apr 12, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.41%chance

273509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1974

506

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

152709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

722

China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2027

Feb 16, 1:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

172306

OptionProbability

PRC occupies Kinmen (main island)

PRC occupies Pratas Island

PRC occupies Taiping Island (Itu Aba)

PRC occupies Matsu (Nangan)

PRC occupies Penghu (Magong)

PRC occupies Green Island

PRC occupies Wuqiu

PRC occupies Xiaoliuqiu

PRC occupies Orchid Island

PRC occupies Kaohsiung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taipei

PRC occupies Hsinchu but not Taipei

PRC occupies Hualien but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taipei but not Kaohsiung

PRC occupies Yilan but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taitung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taichung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taoyuan but not Taipei

21

14

14

14

14

14

13

13

13

13

10

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.4%chance

9860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

692

Volt exceeds 4,000 votes in next Delft municipal elections.

Oct 31, 10:16 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

59.5%chance

2800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.8%chance

4710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2030

Feb 16, 1:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3345

OptionProbability

PRC occupies Pratas Island

PRC occupies Taiping Island (Itu Aba)

PRC occupies Matsu (Nangan)

PRC occupies Kinmen (main island)

PRC occupies Wuqiu

PRC occupies Penghu (Magong)

PRC occupies Xiaoliuqiu

PRC occupies Green Island

PRC occupies Orchid Island

PRC occupies Taipei but not Kaohsiung

PRC occupies Kaohsiung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Yilan but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taitung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taichung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Hsinchu but not Taipei

PRC occupies Hualien but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taipei

PRC occupies Taoyuan but not Taipei

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

27

24

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2105

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

81

19

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 32nd State Senate district

Jul 7, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

213

OptionProbability

Kelly Seyarto (incumbent)

Other

53

47

Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for district 1

Apr 13, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

05

OptionProbability

Eunisses Hernandez (incumbent)

Other

Lou Calanche

Jesus Jesse Rosas

Elaine Alaniz

Sylvia Robledo

Raul Claros

20

17

16

15

13

11

7

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