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Prediction markets for Party City

Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 12:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

5626352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

152709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

722

China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2027

Feb 16, 1:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

172306

OptionProbability

PRC occupies Kinmen (main island)

PRC occupies Pratas Island

PRC occupies Taiping Island (Itu Aba)

PRC occupies Matsu (Nangan)

PRC occupies Penghu (Magong)

PRC occupies Green Island

PRC occupies Wuqiu

PRC occupies Xiaoliuqiu

PRC occupies Orchid Island

PRC occupies Kaohsiung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taipei

PRC occupies Hsinchu but not Taipei

PRC occupies Hualien but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taipei but not Kaohsiung

PRC occupies Yilan but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taitung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taichung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taoyuan but not Taipei

21

14

14

14

14

14

13

13

13

13

10

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

Eric Adams no longer identifies as a Democrat by December 31, 2025

Apr 12, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

232093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Will one of the top two candidates in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Election be an independent/third-party candidate?

May 16, 2:42 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

82.57%chance

201101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

46

Which of the following Congolese cities will be controlled by the M23 group on January 1st, 2026?

Mar 12, 10:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4803

OptionProbability

Goma

Bukavu

Butembo

Kisangani

Kinshasa

57

55

41

28

6

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.8%chance

4710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2030

Feb 16, 1:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3345

OptionProbability

PRC occupies Pratas Island

PRC occupies Taiping Island (Itu Aba)

PRC occupies Matsu (Nangan)

PRC occupies Kinmen (main island)

PRC occupies Wuqiu

PRC occupies Penghu (Magong)

PRC occupies Xiaoliuqiu

PRC occupies Green Island

PRC occupies Orchid Island

PRC occupies Taipei but not Kaohsiung

PRC occupies Kaohsiung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Yilan but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taitung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taichung but not Taipei

PRC occupies Hsinchu but not Taipei

PRC occupies Hualien but not Taipei

PRC occupies Taipei

PRC occupies Taoyuan but not Taipei

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

27

24

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2105

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

81

19

Will the Republican Party gain seats in the 2025 New York City Council Election?

Nov 11, 1:55 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

51.59%chance

690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 6th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

Roger Niello (incumbent)

Other

55

45

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