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Top stories

Chilean Politicians Clash Over Kast’s "Chao Préstamo" Pension Reform and La Araucanía Violence Ahead of 2025 Elections

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Party for Democracy

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

784395091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6391

3455

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

63.77%chance

8413130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

655

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.76%chance

505392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

880

Will the next Republican victory lead to an unprecedented consolidation of power?

Nov 5, 3:49 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

5.74%chance

355339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

943

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

Which parties will become part of the Russian Parliament (State Duma) after the 2026 elections?

Jul 28, 6:46 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

111294

OptionProbability

United Russia

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia

Communist Party of the Russian Federation

New People

A Just Russia

Yabloko

Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice

Party of Direct Democracy

Rodina

Communists of Russia

Russian Ecological Party "The Greens"

96

91

90

85

53

17

15

15

11

11

10

Will Donald Trump call another democratically elected leader of a country a dictator before the end of his current term?

Feb 28, 11:59 AMJan 31, 9:59 PM

76.93%chance

341219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Jan 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

13420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

Mar 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

27.69%chance

15297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

178

Who will run the Anglosphere at the end of June 2028?

Aug 18, 3:24 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

442

OptionProbability

International Democracy Union

Progressive Alliance

67

33

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

Jul 28, 9:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.06%chance

441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

953

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