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Top stories

Chilean Politicians Clash Over Kast’s "Chao Préstamo" Pension Reform and La Araucanía Violence Ahead of 2025 Elections

Authors

3

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Party for Democracy

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7386

3139

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

63.77%chance

8413130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

655

Will the next Republican victory lead to an unprecedented consolidation of power?

Nov 5, 3:49 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

5.74%chance

355339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

943

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

433297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

775

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

Will Donald Trump call another democratically elected leader of a country a dictator before the end of his current term?

Feb 28, 11:59 AMJan 31, 9:59 PM

76.93%chance

341219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Danish Government: Which pairs of parties will govern together or be in opposition together [read desc.] [+500 liqudity]

Mar 19, 8:54 PMJan 11, 7:59 AM

8728

OptionProbability

Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Moderates

Social Democrats & Green Left

Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Venstre

Venstre & Moderates

Venstre & Green Left

Venstre & Liberal Alliance

Venstre & Conservative People's Party

Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Liberal Alliance

Moderates & Conservative People's Party

Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party

Conservative People's Party & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Green Left

Green Left & Liberal Alliance

Green Left & Conservative People's Party

Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance

76

69

67

57

54

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

28

26

24

21

19

13

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Jan 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

31

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

Mar 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

27.69%chance

15297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

178

Will Fajila Patel be elected to the Bastwell and Daisyfield ward in the May local elections?

Apr 5, 11:49 AMMay 7, 11:59 PM

22.54%chance

6139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Who will run the Anglosphere at the end of June 2028?

Aug 18, 3:24 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

442

OptionProbability

International Democracy Union

Progressive Alliance

67

33

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