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Top stories

Chilean Politicians Clash Over Kast’s "Chao Préstamo" Pension Reform and La Araucanía Violence Ahead of 2025 Elections

Authors

3

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Party for Democracy

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

34.48%chance

680288322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5074

4023

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

63.34%chance

7812625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2491

645

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

2511110

OptionProbability

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

GroenLinks–PvdA

JA21

Christian Union (CU)

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Socialist Party (SP)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

Party for Freedom (PVV)

New Social Contract (NSC)

Denk

98

97

87

38

32

8

5

5

5

4

3

2

1

1

1

Will martial law be declared in Taiwan before 2026?

Dec 5, 10:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3.14%chance

175524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5557

180

Will the next Republican victory lead to an unprecedented consolidation of power?

Nov 5, 3:49 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

5.6%chance

345337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

941

USA's 2025 Economist Democracy Index score?

Apr 17, 8:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

124712

OptionProbability

7 - 7.99

6 - 6.99

5 - 5.99

Below 5

8 - 8.99

9 - 10

55

28

14

1

1

1

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.31%chance

382660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

635

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Will Thierry Baudet convert to Islam before the end of 2025?

Jun 10, 10:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

8998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Next Danish Election: Which pairs of parties will govern together or be in opposition together [read description]

Mar 19, 8:54 PMJan 11, 7:59 AM

3505

OptionProbability

Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Green Left

Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Venstre

Social Democrats & Moderates

Venstre & Moderates

Venstre & Green Left

Venstre & Liberal Alliance

Venstre & Conservative People's Party

Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Liberal Alliance

Moderates & Conservative People's Party

Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Green Left

Green Left & Liberal Alliance

Green Left & Conservative People's Party

Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party

Conservative People's Party & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance

76

66

57

54

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

28

26

24

21

21

19

15

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

Mar 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.14%chance

14293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

174

Will Myanmar civil war, NUG and Military Dictators will meetup before 2025 December 31?

Dec 3, 5:20 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

8%chance

5259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

29

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