Passes News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

YES

10678

9273

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.97%chance

428270347

OptionVotes

YES

1185

481

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

19.11%chance

9238977

OptionVotes

YES

9282

2149

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.29%chance

12119248

OptionVotes

YES

15069

7649

California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?

Apr 24, 8:29 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

35%chance

7210729

OptionVotes

YES

2028

418

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

610301

OptionProbability

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

YES

1575

790

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

474052

OptionVotes

YES

8923

4537

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.91%chance

342840

OptionVotes

YES

2010

1973

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

2090

1821

Passes News

Prediction markets for Passes

Prediction markets for Passes

Prediction markets for Passes

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

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