Passes News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.14%chance

978741968

OptionVotes

YES

10353

9564

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.61%chance

250138766

OptionVotes

YES

1206

432

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum Pass?

Feb 19, 9:41 PMApr 23, 12:59 AM

75%chance

6740211

OptionVotes

YES

10294

9924

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.84%chance

11818790

OptionVotes

YES

15208

7571

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

YES

1575

790

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86183

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?

Aug 11, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.18%chance

1014255

OptionVotes

YES

1805

1467

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Mar 11, 3:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.97%chance

312765

OptionVotes

YES

2101

1898

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

2090

1821

Will Elon Musk be the richest person on the planet when he passes away?

Mar 24, 11:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.34%chance

381688

OptionVotes

YES

2153

1420

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

Passes News

Prediction markets for Passes

Prediction markets for Passes

Prediction markets for Passes

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum Pass?

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?

If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Will Elon Musk be the richest person on the planet when he passes away?

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

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