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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

81158482

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

Before January 2027

Before January 2026

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Will Warren Buffet be alive past 2025?

Aug 7, 3:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.32%chance

5110726

OptionVotes

YES

1402

851

Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?

Nov 18, 8:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

77.35%chance

113705

OptionVotes

YES

1046

973

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.7%chance

212430

OptionVotes

YES

1500

773

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.2%chance

402284

OptionVotes

YES

1159

505

Will all living current and past presidents attend Joe Biden's funeral?

Jan 9, 8:31 PMJun 21, 3:59 AM

68.73%chance

101265

OptionVotes

YES

1483

674

Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond be delayed past 2025?

Aug 2, 8:07 PMDec 31, 4:00 PM

16.36%chance

21261

OptionVotes

YES

2261

442

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.66%chance

411103

OptionVotes

YES

1215

939

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?

Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.26%chance

15884

OptionVotes

YES

1068

895

Will we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars before 2030?

Dec 22, 10:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.48%chance

23840

OptionVotes

YES

1123

960

If biological humans still exist in 2100, the majority of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past

Jan 29, 4:38 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

68.28%chance

14348

OptionVotes

YES

991

954

Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past

Jun 10, 2:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.09%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

1302

768

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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Warren Buffet be alive past 2025?

Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Will all living current and past presidents attend Joe Biden's funeral?

Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond be delayed past 2025?

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?

Will we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars before 2030?

If biological humans still exist in 2100, the majority of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past

Will the ending of one piece involve the strawhats (all or just a select few / just luffy) traveling to the past

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