Path News

JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028

Feb 14, 10:18 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

3916760

OptionProbability

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Nominated // Loses

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Nominated // Wins

Ascends from VP term // Is Nominated // Loses

Ascends from VP term // Is Nominated // Wins

Ascends from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Wins Anyway

Ascends from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Wins Anyway

When will PATH run the weekend NWK/WTC line at an interval of every 10m or less?

Oct 13, 11:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6960

OptionProbability

Other

2026

Before the end of 2024

2025

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

Will the transfer of tokenised LP interests become a common liquidity path for LPs by 2030?

Nov 11, 4:58 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

10.33%chance

8222

OptionVotes

YES

378

115

Prompt caching is seen as the wrong path for context management, in December 2026? [0.005 Seconds prediction]

Apr 10, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.48%chance

4153

OptionVotes

YES

1142

967

If AGI has an okay outcome, will it be via the MIRI path of a pause ended with the help of some other technology?

Apr 7, 2:28 PMJan 1, 3:27 PM

29.37%chance

3114

OptionVotes

YES

155

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2035

Jan 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

19.22%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

205

Will the Bay Bridge bike path from West Oakland to downtown SF open before 2031?

Dec 21, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.9%chance

8100

OptionVotes

YES

270

129

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2040

Apr 12, 2:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.37%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

176

Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as a current priority at the end of 2026?

Aug 3, 3:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

479

OptionProbability

AI security

Grantmaking

Pandemic prevention and biosecurity

US electoral politics

Scaling organisations

Technical governance

AI safety fieldbuilding

When will Path of Exile 2 fully launch?

Dec 13, 12:42 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

167

OptionProbability

Sometime in 2026

Before June 30th, 2025

Before December 31st, 2025

Other

SAP C_THR83_2505 Exam Success Path

Dec 24, 1:29 PMDec 24, 1:28 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

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JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028

When will PATH run the weekend NWK/WTC line at an interval of every 10m or less?

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Will the transfer of tokenised LP interests become a common liquidity path for LPs by 2030?

Prompt caching is seen as the wrong path for context management, in December 2026? [0.005 Seconds prediction]

If AGI has an okay outcome, will it be via the MIRI path of a pause ended with the help of some other technology?

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2035

Will the Bay Bridge bike path from West Oakland to downtown SF open before 2031?

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2040

Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as a current priority at the end of 2026?

When will Path of Exile 2 fully launch?

SAP C_THR83_2505 Exam Success Path

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