PATH News

Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as the highest-impact they've identified at the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 1:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

191459

OptionProbability

AI governance and policy

AI safety technical research

Biorisk research, strategy, and policy

Operations management in high-impact organisations

Grantmaker focused on pressing world problems

Nuclear weapons safety and security

Research into global priorities

Helping build the effective altruism community

Information security in high-impact areas

Expert in AI hardware

China-related AI safety and governance paths

JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028

Feb 14, 10:18 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

181182

OptionProbability

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Nominated // Loses

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Nominated // Wins

Ascends from VP term // Is Nominated // Loses

Ascends from VP term // Is Nominated // Wins

Ascends from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses

Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Wins Anyway

Ascends from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Wins Anyway

Will Elon Musk's Path of Exile account be banned for account sharing or cheating?

Jan 9, 10:52 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

21.18%chance

19482

OptionVotes

YES

193

When will PATH stop diverting weekend JSQ/33rd St traffic through Hoboken?

Oct 13, 11:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5481

OptionProbability

Other

2025

2026

Before the end of 2024

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

Dec 27, 2:59 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

17383

OptionProbability

I lose my engineer privilege

I don't think working on AI will make alignment races worse

AI will not be a giant pain to work with

There will be lots of well-paid AI job opportunities for me

When will PATH run the weekend NWK/WTC line at an interval of every 10m or less?

Oct 13, 11:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5264

OptionProbability

Other

2025

2026

Before the end of 2024

Will the transfer of tokenised LP interests become a common liquidity path for LPs by 2030?

Nov 11, 4:58 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

10.33%chance

8222

OptionVotes

YES

378

115

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

Nov 23, 11:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

56.44%chance

7132

OptionVotes

YES

169

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2040

Apr 12, 2:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.37%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

176

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2035

Jan 11, 1:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

35.43%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

135

When will Path of Exile 2 fully launch?

Dec 13, 12:42 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

Before December 31st, 2025

Before June 30th, 2025

Sometime in 2026

Other

Will the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) be under the control of NJ Transit before 2030?

May 12, 12:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

120

PATH News

Prediction markets for PATH

Prediction markets for PATH

Prediction markets for PATH

Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as the highest-impact they've identified at the end of 2025?

JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028

Will Elon Musk's Path of Exile account be banned for account sharing or cheating?

When will PATH stop diverting weekend JSQ/33rd St traffic through Hoboken?

Will AI be a great alternative career path for me as a coder if AI learns to code?

When will PATH run the weekend NWK/WTC line at an interval of every 10m or less?

Will the transfer of tokenised LP interests become a common liquidity path for LPs by 2030?

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2040

PATH station at Newark Airport opens by January 1, 2035

When will Path of Exile 2 fully launch?

Will the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) be under the control of NJ Transit before 2030?

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