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Prediction markets for Payload

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.85%chance

284282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

783

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.8%chance

132088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

890

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?

Dec 21, 5:59 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25%chance

13804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

104

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2055?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

64.76%chance

9634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

99

By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?

Jun 19, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7559

OptionProbability

2029-01-01

2028-01-01

2027-06-01

56

48

30

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?

Dec 17, 2:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.47%chance

11475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

162

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2035?

Dec 21, 10:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

13441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

241

What payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?

Sep 7, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7420

OptionProbability

Dummy Payload

CubeSat Rideshare

Commercial Satellite

Satellite Constellation

Scientific Satellite

Navigation Satellite

Technology Demonstration Payload

Earth Observation Satellite

Military Satellite

Military Cargo

Space Telescope

32

31

24

22

21

21

21

20

14

13

8

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?

Dec 19, 1:42 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

47.15%chance

7398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

143

Payload cost per kg to Low Earth Orbit in 2040

May 16, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.66%chance

372

OptionProbability

YES

NO

359

166

Will a rocket built by PLD space ever put a payload into orbit?

Sep 9, 2:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

75

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