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Prediction markets for Payload

When will Starship first launch with useful payload?

Mar 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6553615

OptionProbability

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2024-05-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

90

86

82

71

60

53

32

18

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.85%chance

284282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

783

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?

Dec 21, 5:59 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25%chance

13804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

104

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2055?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

64.76%chance

9634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

99

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?

Dec 17, 2:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.47%chance

11475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

162

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2035?

Dec 21, 10:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

13441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

241

Will there be a rocket with a payload to LEO of at least 500 Mg before 2035?

Jan 20, 1:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10%chance

3436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

What payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?

Sep 7, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4406

OptionProbability

CubeSat Rideshare

Commercial Satellite

Dummy Payload

Satellite Constellation

Scientific Satellite

Navigation Satellite

Technology Demonstration Payload

Earth Observation Satellite

Military Satellite

Military Cargo

Space Telescope

31

24

24

22

21

21

21

20

14

13

8

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?

Dec 19, 1:42 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

47.15%chance

7398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

143

Payload cost per kg to Low Earth Orbit in 2040

May 16, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.66%chance

372

OptionProbability

YES

NO

359

166

Will a rocket built by PLD space ever put a payload into orbit?

Sep 9, 2:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

75

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