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Prediction markets for Payload

When will Starship first launch with useful payload?

Mar 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7467126

OptionProbability

Before 2027-06-01

Before 2027-03-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-05-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2024-05-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

99

98

98

98

97

95

95

94

70

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?

Jan 4, 2:01 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.99%chance

294426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

895

Will SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?

Jun 10, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.11%chance

173378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1889

529

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?

Jul 6, 4:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.05%chance

91047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2003

499

By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?

Jun 19, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8609

OptionProbability

2029-01-01

2028-01-01

2027-06-01

56

48

26

By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen?

Aug 30, 2:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5507

OptionProbability

2050-12-31

2040-12-31

2035-12-31

2032-12-31

72

50

33

22

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?

Dec 17, 2:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

60.4%chance

12505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

140

Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?

Dec 19, 1:42 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

56.41%chance

9441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

115

Will there be a rocket with a payload to LEO of at least 500 Mg before 2035?

Jan 20, 1:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10%chance

3436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Payload cost per kg to Low Earth Orbit in 2040

May 16, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.66%chance

372

OptionProbability

YES

NO

359

166

Will a rocket built by PLD space ever put a payload into orbit?

Sep 9, 2:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

75

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