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Prediction markets for PB

Will Ag-doped lead-oxide be proven to be superconductive at room temperature by 2027?

Aug 5, 3:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.4%chance

211601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

880

Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?

Jul 1, 4:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.96%chance

3938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

670

PBS stock

Apr 10, 5:46 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM

19858

OptionProbability

NO

YES

338

321

PBS NewsHour airs December 31, 2027?

Apr 15, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.94%chance

7855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1826

547

OpenAI PBC released from nonprofit control by end 2027

Oct 30, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.4%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

776

PBLC

Nov 13, 2:58 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11242

OptionProbability

NO

YES

210

208

What personal goals will I achieve before GTA VI

Dec 31, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4235

OptionProbability

3 pull-ups

BMI < 25

BMI < 24

BMI < 23

Deadlift 150% of body weight

Deadlift 175% of body weight

5k < 23 minutes

5k < 22 minutes

Half marathon < 2h

Half marathon < 01:50:00

Half marathon < 01:40:00

5 pull-ups

10 pull-ups

FTP > 2.5W/kg

FTP > 2.75W/kg

FTP > 3W/kg

Deadlift 200% of body weight

69

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

55

43

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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Sep 17, 2:39 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

74.73%chance

561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

87

Will there be a fission power plant with no moving parts by 2050?

Jul 11, 10:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.67%chance

555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

103

Will Clarence Kennedy ever snatch >=200kg?

Sep 9, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.24%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

134

Will I reach 105 on Zetamac?

Feb 8, 7:33 AMFeb 15, 7:33 AM

39.02%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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