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Prediction markets for PCE

What will be the highest annual PCE inflation in a report released between September 2025 and the midterms?

Aug 29, 4:17 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

52183

OptionProbability

Above 3%

Above 4%

Above 5%

Above 6%

Above 7%

Above 8%

Above 9%

100

61

38

27

15

12

9

Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 18, 2:10 PMNov 4, 12:25 PM

66.7%chance

7397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

74

Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 30, 12:21 AMOct 2, 12:25 PM

38.56%chance

11352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

83

Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 20, 9:17 AMNov 4, 12:25 PM

52.67%chance

8347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 22, 12:04 AMOct 14, 12:29 PM

74.57%chance

5331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

64

Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jul 7, 2:23 AMJan 8, 1:25 PM

18%chance

6330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

59

Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 29, 4:11 AMDec 4, 1:25 PM

24.77%chance

4243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

61

Will October 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 18, 4:01 PMNov 13, 12:25 PM

59%chance

634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will the PCE price index in December 2026 be more than 2% above that in December 2025?

Feb 10, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 26, 1:28 AMDec 10, 1:29 PM

49.46%chance

317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 18, 6:10 PMDec 10, 12:25 PM

49.72%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

89

Will October 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 23, 12:11 AMNov 10, 1:29 PM

53.47%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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