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Prediction markets for PCE

What will be the highest annual PCE inflation in a report released between September 2025 and the midterms?

Aug 29, 4:17 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

52183

OptionProbability

Above 3%

Above 4%

Above 5%

Above 6%

Above 7%

Above 8%

Above 9%

100

61

38

27

15

12

9

Will June 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 10, 12:14 PMJul 30, 12:25 PM

25%chance

294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

54

Will June 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 10, 11:03 AMJul 30, 12:25 PM

48.01%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

86

Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?

Jun 15, 11:14 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

37.2%chance

563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

65

Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jun 15, 8:53 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

26%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

86

Will the PCE price index in December 2026 be more than 2% above that in December 2025?

Feb 10, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will July 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

45%chance

16

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?

Jun 17, 12:16 PMSep 4, 12:25 PM

50.04%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will July 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 14, 8:16 PMAug 26, 12:25 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 20, 9:17 AMNov 4, 12:25 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 18, 2:10 PMNov 4, 12:25 PM

52%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will July 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 16, 2:16 AMAug 26, 12:25 PM

52%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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