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Prediction markets for Peace

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

3.8%chance

4301342179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

503441

19890

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.92%chance

12798004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5332

642

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

83%chance

26137691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2205

407

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM

21.65%chance

17728234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6357

1628

Will Rationalussy create world peace?

Oct 14, 9:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.73%chance

112419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

994

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.88%chance

352392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

256

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

Will the "Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2026" market ever reach 10% again?

Jan 20, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.4%chance

162359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2796

1484

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

Mar 18, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.18%chance

171741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2053

487

2028 US election: peaceful transfer of power to a non-authoritarian leader?

Jul 13, 11:18 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

75%chance

161370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

"Board of Peace" established before 2027?

Sep 30, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.57%chance

17882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

934

Will Russia have a successful peaceful transition of power from Vladimir Putin to the next ruler(s)?

Jul 7, 6:47 PMJul 7, 7:59 PM

55%chance

15674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

960

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