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Prediction markets for Peace

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3%chance

131109535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9681

419

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

67.55%chance

26738475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1472

638

Will the "Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2026" market ever reach 10% again?

Jan 20, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.33%chance

2510737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9684

509

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]

Jun 29, 12:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.87%chance

243709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2030

582

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.21%chance

372471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

280

Will Rationalussy create world peace?

Oct 14, 9:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.73%chance

112419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

994

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

Will Destiny and Vaush achieve peace before Israel and Palestine?

Oct 10, 12:26 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18%chance

211855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

905

2028 US election: peaceful transfer of power to a non-authoritarian leader?

Jul 13, 11:18 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

75%chance

171380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

"Board of Peace" established before 2027?

Sep 30, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.11%chance

18892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

925

Will Russia have a successful peaceful transition of power from Vladimir Putin to the next ruler(s)?

Jul 7, 6:47 PMJul 7, 7:59 PM

55.22%chance

16679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

956

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.85%chance

12413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

797

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