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Prediction markets for Peace

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

10.72%chance

70268631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288647

34644

Will Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize iff there is a ceasefire in Ukraine before 2026? (or not if there isn't)

Aug 16, 3:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

97.19%chance

294163392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5886

170

Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.03%chance

11085364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4306

748

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

69.77%chance

25536410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

604

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM

39.09%chance

16625702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4239

2521

Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?

Oct 11, 5:11 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

384973

OptionProbability

No peace, no Nobel

Peace but no Nobel

Peace and Nobel

No peace, Nobel anyway

55

35

8

3

Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?

Nov 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.36%chance

322372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

870

"Board of Peace" established before 2027?

Sep 30, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

11576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Tony Blair joins Trump's peace plan for Gaza?

Oct 4, 7:36 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

55.26%chance

8569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

864

Will Russia have a successful peaceful transition of power from Vladimir Putin to the next ruler(s)?

Jul 7, 6:47 PMJul 7, 7:59 PM

49.55%chance

14557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

986

If there is a second Peace Summit, will the Russia-Ukraine War end within 3 months afterward?

Sep 21, 4:16 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

44.03%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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