OptionVotes
YES
NO
491968
20354
OptionProbability
Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?
Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?
Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?
Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?
Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?
Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)
Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?
Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia
Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?
>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026
Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030
Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024
Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)
Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)
>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2024
100
100
100
81
41
31
13
7
7
6
5
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
put his name on a ship in the navy
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Says 6 7 (or variant)
Dep
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
ten or more protestors killed during term
Causes Tina Peters' early release
resume buying oil from Russia
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Pardon himself
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Implement a federal abortion ban
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Pardon p diddy
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Postpone the elections due to emergency
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
84
83
82
80
80
75
72
71
70
69
69
69
69
68
67
64
62
60
57
55
53
52
52
50
47
45
44
44
43
42
41
40
40
39
38
38
36
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
123
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A country declares war on Israel
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Iran undergoes a regime change
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Any country leaves NATO
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
A country declares war on United States
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Successful military coup in Venezuela
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
United States formally declares war on Iran
Sudanese Civil War ends
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
China formally declares war on another country
Egypt formally declares war on another country
Iran loses territory
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Israel loses territory
USA leaves NATO
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Iranian troops enter Israel
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States formally declares war on another country
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Humans will extinct
Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
96
96
86
85
75
67
66
65
58
54
53
52
52
51
51
50
50
48
48
48
48
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
42
42
42
42
41
40
40
40
40
39
38
38
38
37
36
36
36
36
36
36
35
35
34
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
3
3
2
1
1
0
OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
Japan allows use of airbases
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Japan attacked by Chinese
China attacks Japan
Malacca Strait blockaded
Guam attacked by Chinese
Oil shortages in China
US destroys TSMC factories
US military intervention
Japanese military intervention
Taiwan surrenders
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
Philippines allows use of airbases
Philippines attacked by Chinese
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
Chinese mainland bombed
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
Food shortages in China
South Korea allows use of airbases
South Korean military intervention
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
European military intervention
Indian military intervention
China attacks South Korea
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
78
75
69
67
67
61
60
55
54
54
52
51
50
50
49
47
42
42
41
40
40
40
40
39
39
38
37
35
33
31
30
12
10
OptionProbability
Post a Tweet
Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement
Bomb Iran
Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)
Enrich himself & his family financially
Shake hands with Putin
Reverse Biden's executive order on AI
Play golf
Shake hands with Xi Jinping
Start a war
Deny Climate Change
Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office
Increase US oil production
Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office
Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time
Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ
Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)
Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue
Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court
Attend at least one current state leader funeral
Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack
Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general
Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar
Exercise
Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants
Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock
Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)
Shake hands with Donald Tusk
Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office
Get impeached
Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters
Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)
Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore
Pardon himself
Withdraw support for Ukraine
Have a net approval below -20% at any point
Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association
Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state
Eliminate Daylight Savings Time
Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.
Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment
Leave office early
Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)
Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil
End SBA direct lending
Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan
Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors
Reference "Situational Awareness"
Eat a hamnhrb
Pass away
Die
Attempt to stay in power for a third term
Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil
Pardon SBF
Make America Great Again
Order a nuclear strike
Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face
Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president
Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.
Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death
Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development
Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.
Ban TikTok
Withdraw the US from NATO
Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official
Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea
Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.
Cry on camera
Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029
Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point
Direct the killing of a political opponent
Be removed via the 25th Amendment
Buy Greenland
Do another Home Alone cameo
Sign a bill into law on day one
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
96
95
90
89
89
88
87
85
81
81
77
77
76
73
72
71
70
69
66
65
65
63
63
60
60
57
56
49
49
43
41
38
34
33
32
28
27
27
26
24
24
21
20
18
17
17
16
16
15
14
14
13
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
5
5
5
3
3
0
OptionProbability
US sends at least $10B of arms to Taiwan
GDP per capita still >2x China in 2050
Successful invasion by PRC
Military conflict with PRC involving at least 1 million deaths on each side
Peaceful unification with PRC
Unsuccessful invasion by PRC
Formal diplomatic relations with the US
Taiwan elects pro-unification government
Formal diplomatic relations with any country that simultaneously has formal diplomatic relations with the PRC for at least 1 month
Officially joining the UN
Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons
PRC acknowledges Taiwan's independence
81
60
52
34
20
20
20
20
17
16
12
10
OptionProbability
Golden Age
Defund the police
Fuck (or variant)
Cocaine
Newscum
Jesus Christ
Third term
Massive fraud
Ghislaine
Election interference
Pussy (or variant)
Fish
World War 3 or WW3 (or any other variant)
Cock (or variant)
Shit (or variant)
Feckless
Be cool
Shithole (or variant)
Nuclear fusion
25th Amendment (or twenty fifth amendment or any other variant)
Failed state
Drake
“Sabrina” or “Carpenter”
Jew hater or Jew haters
Meth
Fifth Column (or any variation)
Divorce
Trans agenda
Penis (or variant)
Eswatini
Peace president
Moist
Delve
Republic of America
Red white and blue land
100
100
100
100
100
81
76
76
70
66
65
65
60
60
60
60
57
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
44
41
41
39
37
22
12
10
OptionProbability
Krantz does not hire Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and both Krantz and Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Sheehan (but not Krantz) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Krantz (but not Sheehan) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and neither Krantz nor Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
72
14
6
5
2
OptionProbability
There is no 2026 FIFA World Peace Prize
Other
Mohammed bin Salman al Saud
Cristiano Ronaldo
Donald Trump
Vladimir Putin
59
22
10
4
3
3
OptionProbability
Rafael Grossi [Argentinian diplomat - director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency]
Other
Rebeca Grynspan [high-level UN official and former vice president of Costa Rica]
Michelle Bachelet [former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and President of Chile]
Jacinda Ardern (Former Prime Minister of New Zealand)
Mia Mottley [Prime Minister of Barbados]
Juan Manuel Santos [former Colombian president – a Nobel peace Prize laureate]
Alicia Bárcena [Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary]
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés [former president of the UN General Assembly and former minister of Ecuador]
40
18
14
14
5
4
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.
Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.
Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.
Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.
Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.
Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.
Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.
Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.
Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.
Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.
Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.
Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.
Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.
Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.
Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.
Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).
Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.
Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.
Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.
Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.
Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.
Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.
Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.
Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.
Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.
Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.
Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.
Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.
Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.
Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.
Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50

