Peace Now News

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

China sanctioned by US + Europe

CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

Taiwan blockaded before invasion

Japan allows use of airbases

US military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded

Chinese mainland bombed

Taiwan surrenders

Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

Japanese military intervention

Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

China attacks Japan

Food shortages in China

Oil shortages in China

Philippines attacked by Chinese

Guam attacked by Chinese

Philippines allows use of airbases

South Korea allows use of airbases

Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

European military intervention

Japan attacked by Chinese

South Korean military intervention

China attacks South Korea

Indian military intervention

US combat troops in Taiwan

US aircraft carrier sunk

US destroys TSMC factories

Tactical nuclear weapon used

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

this market reaches 100 traders

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

Saw XI Releases in USA

alan greenspan passes away

coup in an african country

noam chomsky passes away

chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

another trump assassination attempt

discord IPO happens

2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

Hades 3 announced (game)

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

zootopia 2 releases

Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

First game of the MLB World Series starts

manifold raises more money

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

MLB rookie of the year announced

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

stripe ipo happens

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Cy Young award winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

trump removes a cabinet member

Skate 4 releases

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

windows 12 announcement is made

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

trump starts mass deportations

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

grok4 release date

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

the third Pacific hurricane of the season

28 years Later releases in USA

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

chime IPO happens

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

First Apple Event of the year

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

manifest 2025 ends

Manifest 2025 starts

Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

Llama 4 released to the general userbase

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

south korean president removed from power

the first Solar eclipse of the year

First Nintendo direct of the year

trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

grok 3 release date

nintendo switch successor announced officially

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

doomsday clock announcement

USA President issues 10th executive order

USA President issues 1st executive order

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

Number of president executive orders in 2025

Number of USA presidential pardons in 2025

Doomsday Clock seconds to midnight

Largest earthquake in 2025 (eg 7.5 would be 75%)

Bitcoin value (eg 50K would be 50%)

How many total videos on Joseph Anderson's Youtube Channel

Age of Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025

How many countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

How many nuclear power plants operating in the USA

Number of Republican Senators

Highest Number of Home Runs hit by a single player in 2025 MLB season

Last 2 digits of Minecraft Bedrock's most recent patch (eg 1.50.30 would be 30%)

Latest ChatGPT version number released (eg 6.5 would be 65%)

How many new shows on Broadway in 2025

How many points the winning Superbowl team has

Jersey number of the Cy Young award winner

How many US states have legalized recreational marijuana

How many points the losing Superbowl team has

Manifold's average MAU (eg 25k would be 25%)

How many SpaceX Launches in Dec of 2025

Jersey number of the Heisman trophy winner

Number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic hurricane season

Number of anime profile pics in Manifold's top 100 traders

Number of trillion dollar companies

❤️ Heart disease

Other

🔫 Assassination

💊 Cancer

😨 Stroke

👴 Peacefully in his sleep (old age)

✈️Aircraft crash

🚗 Car crash

🦾 Shoggoth/AI

US sends at least $10B of arms to Taiwan

GDP per capita still >2x China in 2050

Successful invasion by PRC

Military conflict with PRC involving at least 1 million deaths on each side

Unsuccessful invasion by PRC

Formal diplomatic relations with the US

Taiwan elects pro-unification government

Formal diplomatic relations with any country that simultaneously has formal diplomatic relations with the PRC for at least 1 month

Officially joining the UN

Peaceful unification with PRC

Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons

Other

Bitcoin

Ukraine - Russia peace

Controlled by Azerbaijan; Armenian population expelled/killed

Controlled by Azerbaijan; Armenian population moderately repressed

Controlled by Azerbaijan; Armenian population mostly not repressed

Other

In active armed conflict

Independent state recognized by relevant parties

Part of Armenia recognized by relevant parties

Under foreign or international control / protection

Contested, under pressure by (some of) its neighbors

US gets involved

Iran attacks Israel

Israel attacks Iran

Israel launches new settlement projects

Wars continue escalating

Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

Israel increases defense spending by 10%

Israel and Egypt strengthen military cooperation

Israel and Jordan sign new trade agreement

Israel's economy enters recession

Israel holds early elections

Israel and Qatar normalize relations

Israel and Turkey restore diplomatic relations

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations

Israel's Prime Minister resigns

Israel annexes parts of the West Bank

Israel declares war on Hezbollah

Israel and Syria normalize relations

Israel and Lebanon sign peace treaty

I'm serious about my other predictions.

Humanity should pivot from (converting oil into artificial intelligence capabilities) to (converting mechanistically interpretable human cognitive labor into decentralized constitutional parameters for guiding collective intelligence).

It would be helpful if every important thought leader had a prediction similar to this to formalize their positions on complicated issues.

Aligning AI is a job everyone should have the right to earn a living by doing.

I am trying to pay you to help me map my beliefs.

I'm trying to get people to help me write the constitution of truth for AI.

This is Krantz data.

Krantz data is money.

I believe everybody doing this is the solution to alignment.

We could turn X into a machine that allows us to print our own crypto by doing philosophy and arguing about literally everything.

I am challenging all the analytic philosophers on Manifold to an argument about whatever topic they choose.

The main thing we need to do to solve alignment and game theoretic peace is to get all the important philosophers in the world to start talking in analytic English instead of continental English, so we can map our language properly.

Wiggenstien was right the first time and everyone's personal truth is compatible.

Financial and physical oppression and war are side effects of not being able to communicate effectively.

If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.

If the X platform was used primarily as a decentralized mechanism for minting Krantz data, kids could earn a retirement before the age of 23 by getting a sovereign education independently.

If Americans had the right to express their support (or opposition) for each proposition of the constitution (both securely and publicly in a way that can be operated on), we wouldn't need politicians.

If all humans had the right to vote on the constitution that controls AI, AI would be decentrally controlled by a market of opinions.

If humans could print their own money by voting on propositions that control AI, education would be economically accelerated several orders of magnitude.

The solution to aligning ASI is really simple.

Krantz has the most important message to give to society. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-person-had-the-most-important?r=S3JhbnR6

Other

Rafael Grossi [Argentinian diplomat - director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency]

Mia Mottley [Prime Minister of Barbados]

Juan Manuel Santos [former Colombian president – a Nobel peace Prize laureate]

Alicia Bárcena [Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary]

Rebeca Grynspan [high-level UN official and former vice president of Costa Rica]

a separate peace - knowles