OptionVotes
YES
NO
425192
23550
OptionProbability
Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?
Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?
Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?
Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?
Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)
Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?
Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?
Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia
Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?
>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026
Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030
Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024
Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)
Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)
>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2024
100
100
100
83
41
39
10
7
7
6
5
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
China sanctioned by US + Europe
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Japan attacked by Chinese
Japan allows use of airbases
Malacca Strait blockaded
Guam attacked by Chinese
Oil shortages in China
US destroys TSMC factories
US military intervention
Japanese military intervention
Taiwan surrenders
China attacks Japan
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
Philippines allows use of airbases
Philippines attacked by Chinese
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
Chinese mainland bombed
Food shortages in China
South Korea allows use of airbases
South Korean military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
European military intervention
Indian military intervention
China attacks South Korea
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
78
78
70
67
61
60
56
54
54
52
51
50
50
49
49
47
42
42
40
40
40
40
39
39
38
38
37
37
36
35
33
12
10
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
pass 500 or more executive orders
Stays alive
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
new blockade of a country
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
have a journalist arrested
Pardon himself
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
Causes Tina Peters' early release
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
ten or more protestors killed during term
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Nominate a family member to high office
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Dep
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Raise the retirement age for social security
stops all sanctions on Russia
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
resume buying oil from Russia
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
force a former president to testify before Congress
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Enact price controls on groceries
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
expand the borders of the usa
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Prosecute someone for flag burning
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Pardon a convicted pedophile
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Get rid of Noaa.
Says 6 7 (or variant)
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
take control of a part of greenland
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
ends black history month
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Salute Putin
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
declares a white history month
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Attack a NATO ally.
Pardon p diddy
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Announce he’s running for a third term
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
make statements that are negative about labubu
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Call for the end of the Senate
Implement a federal abortion ban
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
ban trans people from holding federal offices
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
Withdraw from NATO
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
all time high unemployment reached
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
100
100
100
100
100
95
89
88
88
84
84
83
83
81
76
76
76
75
75
74
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
67
66
65
63
63
62
62
60
60
59
57
56
55
53
52
50
50
48
47
45
45
45
44
43
42
42
42
42
42
41
41
41
41
40
40
39
38
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
33
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Post a Tweet
Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement
Bomb Iran
Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)
Enrich himself & his family financially
Reverse Biden's executive order on AI
Play golf
Shake hands with Xi Jinping
Deny Climate Change
Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office
Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office
Increase US oil production
Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time
Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)
Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue
Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ
Shake hands with Putin
Attend at least one current state leader funeral
Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general
Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar
Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack
Shake hands with Donald Tusk
Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants
Exercise
Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock
Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)
Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office
Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters
Withdraw support for Ukraine
Get impeached
Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)
Have a net approval below -20% at any point
Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association
Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court
Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore
Pardon himself
Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state
Eliminate Daylight Savings Time
Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.
Leave office early
Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment
Reference "Situational Awareness"
Start a war
Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil
End SBA direct lending
Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)
Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan
Eat a hamnhrb
Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors
Pass away
Die
Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil
Attempt to stay in power for a third term
Pardon SBF
Make America Great Again
Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president
Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.
Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death
Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development
Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.
Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face
Withdraw the US from NATO
Ban TikTok
Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.
Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official
Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea
Cry on camera
Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029
Direct the killing of a political opponent
Order a nuclear strike
Do another Home Alone cameo
Be removed via the 25th Amendment
Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point
Buy Greenland
Sign a bill into law on day one
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
95
90
89
89
87
85
85
81
81
79
77
75
75
72
72
71
70
66
65
64
61
61
56
55
54
54
51
49
48
42
41
41
39
38
33
32
28
28
26
26
24
24
20
18
17
16
16
15
14
14
13
12
10
10
9
9
8
7
5
5
5
4
4
3
2
0
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
123
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Successful military coup in Venezuela
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Any country leaves NATO
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
China invades Taiwan
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Sudanese Civil War ends
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
USA leaves NATO
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Humans will extinct
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
95
95
87
74
72
68
63
62
60
59
57
53
52
52
51
47
47
46
46
45
45
44
43
43
43
43
42
40
40
39
39
39
39
38
38
37
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
35
34
33
32
32
32
32
31
31
30
29
29
29
27
27
27
26
26
26
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
20
20
20
19
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
16
15
15
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
9
8
8
5
3
3
2
2
2
0
OptionProbability
US sends at least $10B of arms to Taiwan
GDP per capita still >2x China in 2050
Successful invasion by PRC
Military conflict with PRC involving at least 1 million deaths on each side
Unsuccessful invasion by PRC
Formal diplomatic relations with the US
Taiwan elects pro-unification government
Formal diplomatic relations with any country that simultaneously has formal diplomatic relations with the PRC for at least 1 month
Officially joining the UN
Peaceful unification with PRC
Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons
PRC acknowledges Taiwan's independence
81
60
52
34
20
20
19
17
16
13
12
10
OptionProbability
Krantz does not hire Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and both Krantz and Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Sheehan (but not Krantz) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and Krantz (but not Sheehan) wins the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
Krantz hires Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030, and neither Krantz nor Sheehan win the Nobel Peace Prize by 2050
72
14
6
5
2
OptionProbability
There is no 2026 FIFA World Peace Prize
Other
Mohammed bin Salman al Saud
Cristiano Ronaldo
Donald Trump
Vladimir Putin
50
27
12
4
3
3
OptionProbability
Other
Rafael Grossi [Argentinian diplomat - director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency]
Jacinda Ardern (Former Prime Minister of New Zealand)
Mia Mottley [Prime Minister of Barbados]
Rebeca Grynspan [high-level UN official and former vice president of Costa Rica]
Juan Manuel Santos [former Colombian president – a Nobel peace Prize laureate]
Alicia Bárcena [Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary]
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés [former president of the UN General Assembly and former minister of Ecuador]
40
27
15
6
4
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.
Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.
Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.
Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.
Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.
Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.
Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.
Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.
Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.
Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.
Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.
Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.
Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.
Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.
Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.
Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).
Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.
Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.
Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.
Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.
Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.
Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.
Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.
Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.
Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.
Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.
Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.
Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.
Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.
Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.
Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.
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OptionProbability
a separate peace - knowles
a movable feast - hemmingway
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