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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.39%chance

86134411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108928

17670

Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

May 5, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.27%chance

13339257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

585

The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026

Jul 30, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

747295

OptionProbability

Google Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

X.ai

Other

Meta

33

25

23

15

3

1

LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$)

Sep 15, 7:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.97%chance

374074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2613

736

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.4%chance

493670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

838

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Aug 7, 7:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.58%chance

271461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1513

872

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.53%chance

25694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

900

From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?

Aug 30, 4:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3279

OptionProbability

China

USA

United Kingdom

France

Switzerland

Germany

Canada

Japan

Austria

Australia

Spain

Russia

93

90

69

57

41

31

29

26

20

20

6

4

Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.89%chance

10240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

162

2025 PGA Player of the Year

Jul 1, 2:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2185

OptionProbability

Scottie Scheffler

Rory McIlroy

Other

Xander Schauffele

Ludvig Åberg

Justin Thomas

70

8

8

6

5

4

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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