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Prediction markets for Peer Perform

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

81796

26531

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Jan 6, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1513761

OptionProbability

90-100%

80-90%

100-110%

70-80%

110-120%

60-70%

50-60%

>120%

40-50%

<20%

20-30%

30-40%

40

15

14

8

7

5

3

3

2

1

1

1

The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026

Jul 30, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

868229

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google Deepmind

X.ai

Other

Meta

38

34

17

5

5

1

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Aug 7, 7:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.58%chance

271461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1513

872

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

What will average human life look like after AGI?

May 13, 3:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15473

OptionProbability

Unemployed

Has AI Friends

AI Surveillanced

Has UBI

The humans are dead

Spends most time in the Metaverse

Has AI Partner (Romanically)

Hard physical labor

96

76

58

54

47

34

30

6

From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?

Aug 30, 4:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4349

OptionProbability

USA

China

United Kingdom

France

Switzerland

Germany

Canada

Japan

Austria

Australia

Spain

Russia

99

93

69

57

41

31

29

26

20

20

6

4

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.89%chance

10240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

162

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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