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Top stories

Microsoft Omitted China Staff From Pentagon Cloud Security Plan, Probe Shows

US Domestic Policy

Microsoft Omitted China Staff From Pentagon Cloud Security Plan, Probe Shows

Authors

15

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Pentagon

When will the U.S. government confirm that the Roswell incident was an actual UFO crash?

Sep 18, 8:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

2922824

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

36

17

3

1

0

Iranian strike on U.S. soil in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.72%chance

206596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4542

227

Will China's navy still be the largest in the world in 2025?

Mar 6, 9:18 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

95.21%chance

154223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2509

847

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

21965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

706

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM

10550

OptionProbability

Natural phenomena

Faked evidence / false testimony

Failure of detection equipment

Advanced and secret human technology

Previously unknown other species inhabitants of earth

Non human intelligence from outer space / other dimensions

61

61

56

52

16

8

Secret Immaculate Constellation Pentagon program revelation causes detention time before 2026?

Apr 30, 3:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.96%chance

7240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

29

Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Jun 11, 8:18 PMJan 21, 11:59 AM

49.24%chance

5230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

985

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

20.46%chance

6130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Apr 4, 1:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

48.36%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

108

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