Pentagon News

Microsoft Omitted China Staff From Pentagon Cloud Security Plan, Probe Shows

1 year ago

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

210360016

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1510922

OptionProbability

Anthropic does not cave: stays a leading lab

Anthropic does not cave: stops being a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stays a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stops being a leading lab

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

143990

OptionProbability

Not before 31 December 2030

in 2030

in 2028

in 2029

in 2026

in 2027

Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 19, 4:50 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

19.89%chance

121854

OptionVotes

YES

2007

498

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

1225

592

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

21965

OptionVotes

YES

1006

706

Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Jun 11, 8:18 PMJan 21, 11:59 AM

51.3%chance

7851

OptionVotes

YES

1026

974

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM

10550

OptionProbability

Natural phenomena

Faked evidence / false testimony

Failure of detection equipment

Advanced and secret human technology

Previously unknown other species inhabitants of earth

Non human intelligence from outer space / other dimensions

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

1093

924

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

210

Will "Does Pentagon Pizza Theory Work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.41%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1044

993

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Apr 4, 1:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

48.36%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

112

108

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Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Will Pentagon get $200 billion in funds for the Iran War before the 2026 midterms?

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Will "Does Pentagon Pizza Theory Work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Pentagon stock [permanent]

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