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Prediction markets for People magazine

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

19.62%chance

9718085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

586

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Mar 3, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

427048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

1534

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still together on December 31, 2028?

Oct 7, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.34%chance

12233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

69

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