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People Power Party News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

751337522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6901

3283

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486936

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

55

37

32

14

10

8

7

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

31

16

15

10

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will the US have "one person, one vote" by 2050?

Jan 18, 10:30 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

9.82%chance

211162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

959

101

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

962

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.89%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Will Zhang Youxia be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

135

Thailand election 2026

Dec 18, 4:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.18%chance

253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

76

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