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Prediction markets for Perception Point

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.96%chance

625661045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13577

540

Will the US be perceived as more corrupt in 2026 than 2025?

Feb 21, 5:47 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

84.35%chance

202476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2322

431

Which countries will join both the US's Artemis Accords and China/Russia's International Lunar Research Station?

Apr 16, 6:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4185

OptionProbability

India

UAE

Kazakhstan

Hungary

Turkey

Brazil

Egypt

Thailand

Saudi Arabia

82

59

50

50

44

44

44

44

44

In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world?

Feb 22, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

89

Knowing Trump won the popular vote by 1.5%, how would Nikki Haley have performed had she been the Republican nominee?

Nov 21, 6:45 PM

150

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