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By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.15%chance

11423240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4765

1348

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.58%chance

368692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9591

1588

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Apr 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.43%chance

826082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

811

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

351585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

972

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.84%chance

11975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?

Aug 16, 2:33 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

68.85%chance

8714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

673

Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028?

Aug 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.42%chance

10470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

13320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

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