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Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

Jan 8, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.63%chance

385953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

554

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?

Mar 25, 11:26 PMMar 25, 11:59 PM

10.06%chance

343397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

801

Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer that 365 days before 2035?

Jun 9, 9:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.52%chance

262778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

914

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.49%chance

42165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

616

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

1422

Will at least one gram of antimatter be manufactured in a one year period before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.61%chance

301025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

963

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMAug 13, 9:59 PM

36.27%chance

16718

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1336

731

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in one day in the period from 2026 to 2032?

Jan 1, 4:21 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

28.08%chance

4632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

625

Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Jul 21, 12:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.27%chance

17561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

682

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

50.62%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

988

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