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Prediction markets for Periodic Labs

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.03%chance

9112035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2562

536

Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jun 30, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

284400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3895

413

Will we find a superconductor working at temperature above -100 °C at room pressure?

Mar 5, 6:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

243203

OptionProbability

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

21

17

12

7

0

Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?

Sep 5, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.74%chance

25831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

94

In which five year period will the UK Labour Party first have a woman leader?

Mar 5, 6:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

8198

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Other

30

26

25

19

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

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