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Prediction markets for Periodic Labs

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Will we find a superconductor working at temperature above -100 °C at room pressure?

Mar 5, 6:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

223097

OptionProbability

Before 2034

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2026

21

17

12

11

0

Will Inflection AI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jun 30, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.18%chance

272650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

591

In which five year period will the UK Labour Party first have a woman leader?

Mar 5, 6:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

8188

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

Other

2025-2029

31

29

22

17

Will we “muddle through” alignment?

Mar 18, 9:42 AMJan 26, 7:59 AM

66%chance

10138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Sean catches a disease on his honeymoon to Vietnam

Jan 23, 5:01 PMMay 29, 4:00 PM

487

OptionProbability

Yes

No

56

44

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