Perpetual News
Prediction markets for Perpetual
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.95%chance
257109895
OptionVotes
2056
473
If there is ever a cure to aging, what is it most likely to resemble?
Sep 23, 11:13 AMJul 19, 6:29 PM
485188
OptionProbability
38
21
15
14
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027
Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM
29.13%chance
191663
OptionVotes
1560
641
When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?
May 5, 8:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
91061
OptionProbability
36
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1077
713
OptionProbability
80
73
68
67
65
64
58
51
50
46
40
32
30
30
19
Will Apple acquire the Globalstar satellite constellation?
Nov 22, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.81%chance
11546
OptionVotes
171
162
OptionVotes
125
80
Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?
Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.64%chance
458
OptionVotes
124
81
⛹️🧑🎓 After Dartmouth, at what colleges will student athletes unionize? (ADD RESPONSES)
Mar 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
115
OptionProbability
50
50
41
41
41
[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?
Dec 29, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
211
OptionProbability
45
28
28