Perpetual News

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24%chance

24299057

OptionVotes

YES

1835

535

If there is ever a cure to aging, what is it most likely to resemble?

Sep 23, 11:13 AMJul 19, 6:29 PM

485188

OptionProbability

Gene therapy

Other

cell type specific exosome therapy to restore the correct epigenome

Nanobots

Fixing the seven types of damage that SENS / Aubrey de Grey target

Uploading

Yamanaka factors

Cybernetics

Telomerase

Bryan Johnson

Mind transplantation to perpetual healthy lab-grown self clones

Adrenochrome

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

1560

641

Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?

Nov 29, 6:20 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.8%chance

81040

OptionVotes

YES

540

126

When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?

May 5, 8:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

91036

OptionProbability

2025.8-2025.9

2025.9-2026

2025.6-2025.7

2025.5-2025.6

2025.7-2025.8

2025.1-2025.2

2025.2-2025.3

2025.3-2025.4

2025.4-2025.5

2025-2025.1

2024.5-2024.6

2024.6-2024.7

2024.7-2024.8

2024.8-2024.9

2024.9-2025

2026-2026.1

2026.1-2026.2

2026.2-2026.3

2026.3-2026.4

2026.4-2026.5

2026.5-2026.6

2026.6-2026.7

2026.7-2026.8

2026.8-2026.9

2026.9-2027

2027-2027.1

2027.1-2027.2

2027.2-2027.3

2027.3-2027.4

2027.4-2027.5

2027.5-2027.6

2027.6-2027.7

2027.7-2027.8

2027.8-2027.9

2027.9-2028

2028-2028.1

2028.1-2028.2

2028.2-2028.3

2028.3-2028.4

2028.4-2028.5

2028.5-2028.6

2028.6-2028.7

2028.7-2028.8

2028.8-2028.9

2028.9-2029

2029-2029.1

2029.1-2029.2

2029.2-2029.3

2029.3-2029.4

2029.4-2029.5

Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030

Dec 15, 8:40 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

30.22%chance

181019

OptionVotes

YES

1077

713

Everything is Commensurable, the perpetual stock multimarket

Mar 18, 3:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12679

OptionProbability

Inventing a meat substitute that replaces $1B/year of meat production

Locking up every gang tattoo haver in El Salvador to reduce homicide rate from 100 to 2.4

Finding a gusher that produces 10 million barrels of oil over 10 years

Inventing a way to make your factory 10% more efficient and then firing 10% of its workforce (100 workers).

repealing occupational licensing for haircuts in city of 100,000 people

the average act of consensual sex

Having at least one child

Becoming vegan for one year

donating $10 to GiveWell

Spending $10 million on a yacht instead of investing it in SPY

The average rape

Donating $10 to an average political campaign in the US

Requiring US doctors to get an unrelated bachelor's degree before starting medical school for no reason

the average homicide

Delaying the covid vaccine approval by a month for no reason

Will Apple acquire the Globalstar satellite constellation?

Nov 22, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.81%chance

11546

OptionVotes

YES

171

162

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

114

⛹️🧑‍🎓 After Dartmouth, at what colleges will student athletes unionize? (ADD RESPONSES)

Mar 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

115

OptionProbability

Arizona State

UPenn

UCLA

University of Oregon

Yale

What will happen to the Marineland Beluga whales?

Oct 14, 1:41 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

215

OptionProbability

Euthanized

Moved to a sanctuary

Introduced to the wild

Sold/given to a park

Anyone suggest an easy to use perpetual platform for "any" tokens if not all crypto tokens. I already use Jupiter. 🙏

Mar 17, 5:55 PM

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Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

If there is ever a cure to aging, what is it most likely to resemble?

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?

When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?

Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030

Everything is Commensurable, the perpetual stock multimarket

Will Apple acquire the Globalstar satellite constellation?

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

⛹️🧑‍🎓 After Dartmouth, at what colleges will student athletes unionize? (ADD RESPONSES)

What will happen to the Marineland Beluga whales?

Anyone suggest an easy to use perpetual platform for "any" tokens if not all crypto tokens. I already use Jupiter. 🙏

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