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Personal Systems News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.77%chance

793414172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14104

2043

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8.13%chance

127235268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

961

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

42.64%chance

233700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4493

3587

Will there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?

Jan 26, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.26%chance

8261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

67

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Google's age verification system before 2027?

Jun 30, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.84%chance

10188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 29, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.57%chance

7168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.86%chance

8131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to YouTube's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 14, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.16%chance

5119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Roblox's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 10, 3:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.3%chance

877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

75

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to the age verification system of ANY OS before 3 July 2028?

May 26, 2:28 PMJul 2, 11:59 PM

62.62%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Jun 8, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

33

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