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Prediction markets for Personal Systems

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

783394684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6715

3343

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6%chance

125234855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4062

893

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

564

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5594

2925

Will there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?

Jan 26, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

7161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

91

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 29, 2:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.43%chance

6143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to YouTube's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 14, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.4%chance

4110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to the age verification system of ANY OS before 3 July 2028?

May 26, 2:28 PMJul 2, 11:59 PM

62.62%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Roblox's age verification system before 2027?

Apr 10, 3:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

68

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Jun 8, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

33

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