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Prediction markets for Personal Systems

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.17%chance

793419470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25491

17311

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

15%chance

114226036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

1122

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

45.09%chance

557182429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4805

3883

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

37.29%chance

2515523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

437

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.37%chance

796575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2043

965

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33%chance

134578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

When will ChatGPT become proactive (instead of reactive)?

Jun 29, 8:15 AMDec 31, 9:12 AM

204350

OptionProbability

before 2028 (within ~3 years)

before 2027 (within ~2 years)

later / never

before 2026 (less than a year)

62

54

39

30

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

302129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

817

Will Denizhan Akar still use Google Docs as his sole personal knowledge management system by end of 2025?

Feb 28, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

8201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

96

Will there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?

Jan 26, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

6108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

114

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Jun 8, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

33

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