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Prediction markets for Peter Thiel

Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Jul 30, 1:59 AMAug 6, 3:59 AM

5.68%chance

628671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

908

Peter Thiel cuts a check to Donald Boat by March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:54 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10.99%chance

92591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2846

351

Will Peter Thiel ever be elected President?

Jan 13, 8:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.76%chance

181268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

899

Will Peter Thiel be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.18%chance

22992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

927

Will Peter Thiel reference Manifold Markets by 2030?

Sep 15, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.27%chance

16987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

779

Will Peter Thiel become a featured NPC in a major AAA game title (like GTA 6) by 2027?

May 13, 10:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.7%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

45

Will someone finally pester Peter Thiel on his position on microplastics in any conference (or in public) by 2026?

Jan 7, 7:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.96%chance

7116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

82

Will Peter Thiel run for any elected government office this decade?

Jan 5, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

4112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

77

Will Elon Musk die before Peter Thiel?

Apr 20, 10:40 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

58.2%chance

964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

172

Will Peter Thiel meet janus/repligate by EOY2029?

Apr 29, 10:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will any public interview of Peter Thiel mention microplastic or nanoplastic in 2026

Oct 16, 8:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Is there a Markov boundary between Chuck Johnson and Peter thiel by EOY 2028?

Jan 23, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

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