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Prediction markets for PF

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

In 2030 will long-lasting side effects in over 30% of the US be linked to the Moderna AND Pfizer COVID vaccinations?

Feb 17, 12:53 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

2.55%chance

111735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

938

Which Canadian Leaders will JJ McCullough interview by December 31st 2025?

Dec 7, 6:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4706

OptionProbability

Pierre Poilievre (Conservative)

Justin Trudeau (Liberal)

Jagmeet Singh (NDP)

Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois)

Maxime Bernier (People's)

Elizabeth May (Green)

11

3

3

1

1

1

In what year will Europe vote to ban PFAs ("forever chemicals")?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6204

OptionProbability

2023-2025

2026-2028

2032-2040

2029-2031

No ban before 2041

37

29

14

11

8

Will Albert Bourla (CEO of Pfizer) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 8, 11:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.62%chance

9183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

111

Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)?

Nov 8, 1:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.72%chance

478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

103

Will Mauro Cid lose the benefits of his delação premiada (plea bargain) before 2026?

Nov 20, 5:01 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

30%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

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