OptionProbability
Any model announced before 2030
Any model announced before 2029
Any model announced before 2028
Any open-weights model announced before 2030
Any model announced before 2027
Grok 5
Any Claude 5 model
Gemini 3
OpenAI o4
Any model announced before 2026
GPT-5
DeepSeek-V4
Claude 3.5 Opus
Grok 3
OpenAI o3
Llama 4
GPT-4.5
Gemini 2.5
Any Claude 4 model
grok-4
85
82
80
77
62
41
36
35
29
25
23
17
13
0
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
79
74
61
19
6
<2030
<2027
>=2030
<2026
46
27
15
12