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Prediction markets for Pharmaceuticals

Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

Jun 2, 7:29 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

82%chance

264029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2135

468

Pharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026?

Sep 29, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.21%chance

103589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3587

279

Which biotech scaleup will have the largest market cap in 2030?

Mar 8, 6:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11599

OptionProbability

Twist Bioscience

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

10x genomics

Ginkgo Bioworks

40

34

20

9

Will there be an FDA Approved treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome by 2030.

Jun 28, 8:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.67%chance

5386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

511

480

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

989

Will the drug PP405 get FDA approval?

Aug 17, 5:09 PMJan 1, 6:07 PM

59.68%chance

4235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

822

Will there be an FDA approved medication to lower lp(a) by the end of 2027?

Jan 4, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.25%chance

5213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

956

Which country will enter the top 5 worldwide pharmaceutical markets by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:50 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6146

OptionProbability

India

Brazil

UK

Denmark

Italy

Spain

Canada

68

59

41

36

35

34

30

Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?

Jun 24, 11:20 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

83.68%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

226

44

US adopts pharmaceutical reciprocity with the UK, some/all of the EU, Japan, or Australia before 2035

Mar 16, 4:22 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

11.61%chance

6143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

91

Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?

Jan 25, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.94%chance

2136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

44

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